Recent content by Mumbles2025

trumps statement is optics, there is nothing of any substance in the statement. Distilled down the agreement (if that is what it is, its not even a heads of agreement or an MOU) The outcome of the latest U.S.–China talks signals a temporary de-escalation, but no formal structural changes have...

i think we are on the same page

Thanks John — great to see you’ve run this through ChatGPT as well. Feels like we’re having a structured debate with ourselves, but in the best possible way — focused on the mechanics, not the noise. I think we’re broadly aligned on the idea of a 10,000t NdPr oxide reserve for national...

Just throwing this out there — a fag packet idea, but one worth exploring further: The Australian government has proposed a rare earth strategic stockpile for national security purposes. But producers have raised valid concerns: – It could distort market pricing and crowd out industrial buyers...

the NdPr is market is incredibly opaque, with the exception of the SMM spot market price, it is very difficult to get an idea of the actual market price. Argus and a couple of others try to come up with something but it isnt reliable. Note also needs to be made of the liquidity ( or lack there...

Going back to Arafura, i cant comment as its not a project i know I’ve lived and breathed pensana for the last 5 years (as i think you can tell), however, it seams that no Rare earth project is going to take off, if the west relies on western capital markets alone.

After the strategic investor pulled out in March 2023 (widely understood to be Sibanye Stillwater, though never officially confirmed), Pensana came dangerously close to collapse. As part of those negotiations, Sibanye had insisted on an exclusivity clause, preventing the company from exploring...

John, the only reason Pensana got financed was because it done by African institutions, all the western capital markets did was use Pensana share holders as liquidity fodder to generate volatility to trade on. As means of price discovery, it was complete waste of time. institutions looking for...

How did Pensana manage to begin construction without offtake or fully committed finance? The initial financing strategy was outlined in a June 2023 RNS, targeting $120 million in debt and $80 million in equityfor Longonjo’s Phase 1 development. A $15 million bridging loan from FSDEA was also...

i had some help but Assessing Sovereign Risk in Angola: A Nuanced View for Mining and Energy Investors Sovereign risk in Angola is a legitimate consideration, especially for those familiar with its past under President José Eduardo dos Santos. This was a period defined by opaque governance...

great idea, but you can only do that once, if at all. one of the reasons for the delay is that exporters need to ensure end of use certificates are guaranteed by the receiver., As with any export controls, before a subsequent permit is issues, the end of use certificate for the previous one...

The ABSA CPs are related to the Export credit guarantees that have been mandated by the ABSA credit committee, these discussion are taking place with ECIC, https://www.ecic.co.za/. In addition all the equity requires to be in place prior to drawdown taking place, this has already been sourced...

Re the financing and offtake, the market needs to look at the organisations funding the project. The Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund, And the African Finance Corporation, along with ABSA participating in debt only. As African centric financiers they can take a view on the risk of not being able to...