ARU - FID Achieved
- Thread starter John
- Start date
patarnoster
Active member
It is but still missing the equity piece
Ok....so some inital thoughts:
- Aust Govt taking the remaining offtake to get it to 80%. Its non binding. But my guess is that the Aust govt has not got everything set up yet...and when was the last time the Aust govt walked away from a non-binding agreement. They always go binding.
- The dept providers are the ones that decide on the offtake...if it meets their Conditions Precident. And obviously it has.
- What about the US$300 EXIM .....does the Traxys North Ameria LLC deal give ARU access to some of that funding (it will be debt funding). What will they spend it on?
In terms of trading today....there will be lots of people selling...but also lots now buying....
I have no idea what will happen.
- Aust Govt taking the remaining offtake to get it to 80%. Its non binding. But my guess is that the Aust govt has not got everything set up yet...and when was the last time the Aust govt walked away from a non-binding agreement. They always go binding.
- The dept providers are the ones that decide on the offtake...if it meets their Conditions Precident. And obviously it has.
- What about the US$300 EXIM .....does the Traxys North Ameria LLC deal give ARU access to some of that funding (it will be debt funding). What will they spend it on?
In terms of trading today....there will be lots of people selling...but also lots now buying....
I have no idea what will happen.
Who says we need it? Traxys may tick the box for EXIM...and that sits on the debt?
How good would that be....maybe the shorters didn't see that one coming?
patarnoster
Active member
That would be good, I would be excited to know haha
patarnoster
Active member
Yeah it’s going to be an interesting day
This is a time that many thought would never come
I do wonder if this will be taken as a positive as the Australians govt being the final offtaker, I can already imagine some saying they got bailed out
patarnoster
Active member
Lots of sellers too, haha
patarnoster
Active member
Does it not feel half-cooked?
They’ve announced FID (They have said its procedural, I assume hence no TH), but the fine print still says the final debt, equity, approvals and construction contracts are not fully locked yet. I get the latter, but the equity is missing? While we can see some people have been told its with cornerstone etc, why the shorts so high?
Also no call for meeting for voting? Shorts still pilling in, and while DC and CFO are in USA and EU, it feels like there is something missing.
Even now with a positive ann the price is being shorted into oblivion.
So whats the missing piece?
Well....80% was just a miniumum offtake for debt.
Maybe they have more offtake with the Germans locked in with Equity?
And I think ARU are running with two approaches for the final funding
1 - US Debt from EXIM (i think a low percentage likelihood)
2 - Cap Riase. (i think a high percentage likelihood)
And the shorters are banking on the Cap Raise as their exit.
patarnoster
Active member
Its being shorted into oblivion... not that people don't like it.
patarnoster
Active member
It seems to me, that mabe the 50m Euro with Europe is still on, they would be short another 65m USD, around 92m AUD, so lets say they buy at 26c thats 350m shares, more if lower and so on, its not a big number, but still free money for shorts.
I have a feeling that the shorts have risen substantially because they are in the know or factoring in a very high probability that the final cap raise will be granted to institutional investors. As DC said they wound prefer clean equity without strings attached and the cornerstone equity so far seems to all have some sort of strings.
While a Public market equity raise is one without a string apart from discounting the share price.
Shorts have been correct every time so far so I don’t think they will be burnt. It’s a real shame.
I don’t think the GRMF 50mil euro is on the cards as they need 500tpa offtake and ARU stated in their table in the FID announcement, there is ~230tpa Europe or German offtake leftover to arrange.
I also think on FID day there were many short term sellers combined with continued uncertainty and risk to the commercial close (funding, offtakes), which is why it didn’t pump. It’s a proceed at risk announcement so not much de-risking involved.
I’m factoring in a possible full public market raise at around 28cents in the next week or so due to these issues with shorts getting what they want.
Potential future catalysts now become:
While a Public market equity raise is one without a string apart from discounting the share price.
Shorts have been correct every time so far so I don’t think they will be burnt. It’s a real shame.
I don’t think the GRMF 50mil euro is on the cards as they need 500tpa offtake and ARU stated in their table in the FID announcement, there is ~230tpa Europe or German offtake leftover to arrange.
I also think on FID day there were many short term sellers combined with continued uncertainty and risk to the commercial close (funding, offtakes), which is why it didn’t pump. It’s a proceed at risk announcement so not much de-risking involved.
I’m factoring in a possible full public market raise at around 28cents in the next week or so due to these issues with shorts getting what they want.
Potential future catalysts now become:
- final remaining offtake closure
- full lender satisfaction
- first construction mobilisation
- strategic reserve purchase confirmation
- capex execution success
- commissioning milestones
So… wow. What a day.
21 years in the making. So many times ARU has looked close to FID, only for the goalposts to move again. And then today, of all things, the NT News runs the story at night before any formal announcement from ARU.
Was that a mistake? Did ARU have to scramble?
There was no trading halt either, which is unusual for something this material. Normally a halt creates a bit of buzz and gives the market some notice that something significant is coming. It also gives institutions time to process the news, seek internal approvals, and decide whether they are buyers or sellers.
Instead, the news landed — and the share price went down for most of the day.
So what did the market not like?
A few obvious candidates:
Similarly, I would have expected the offtake to need to be binding to satisfy the relevant CP. Again, perhaps this has been varied or agreed with the lenders. If so, that is also a significant achievement.
On the Australian Government offtake, I am not too worried about it being non-binding at this stage. My guess is that the government framework is still being set up and may not yet be ready to execute a binding offtake in the way a private counterparty would. Also, given a large portion of the debt support is coming from Australian Government-linked sources anyway, in some ways the government is effectively agreeing with itself.
Now, the positives from today are significant:
Theory 1: Selling into the FID news
There were probably some holders who bought near the lows over the last year or two, with average prices around 15–20 cents. Selling today around 30 cents may have doubled their money, which is not a bad return for a year’s hold.
But they could also have sold last week around 36 cents, or even higher a few months ago. And given the way other rare earth names have moved on major strategic news — MP Materials and Lynas being obvious examples — I suspect many holders were expecting a stronger reaction than this.
So yes, some selling into the news probably added pressure. But I do not think it fully explains today’s move.
Theory 2: The shorters
This is the part that frustrates me.
If you look back across ARU’s previous capital raises, the short position often seems to rise before a raise is announced. Then, once the raise is completed and shares are issued, the short position appears to fall back again.
See more here: https://forum.rareearthexchanges.com/threads/aru-sharemarket-manipulation.5/
This pattern deserves scrutiny!!!
There has been no capital raise announced yet. Therefore, the raise price has not been set. If short sellers can keep the share price down ahead of a raise, then the eventual placement price may be lower, and their exit strategy becomes far more profitable.
So how much of today’s trading was genuine selling, and how much was deliberate pressure to hold the share price down?
This is where the ASX and ASIC need to lift their game. In 2026, surely AI and market surveillance tools should be capable of detecting repeated trading patterns, coordinated pressure, and abnormal short activity around capital raisings. At times today, the trading looked very deliberate — shares being thrown onto the market to create downward momentum and suppress the price.
And as always, retail investors are operating with delayed short data, while the big end of town has far better visibility. How is that a level playing field?
The key question now is this:
How long do the shorters need to keep pressure on the share price before the capital raise is announced?
Or — and this would be the dream outcome for shareholders — can Darryl pull off a massive win and secure the US$300 million from EXIM, reducing or removing the need for further equity?
Because if that happens, those short positions may need to be bought back on market.
Bring on the squeeze.
Any other thougths out there?
21 years in the making. So many times ARU has looked close to FID, only for the goalposts to move again. And then today, of all things, the NT News runs the story at night before any formal announcement from ARU.
Was that a mistake? Did ARU have to scramble?
There was no trading halt either, which is unusual for something this material. Normally a halt creates a bit of buzz and gives the market some notice that something significant is coming. It also gives institutions time to process the news, seek internal approvals, and decide whether they are buyers or sellers.
Instead, the news landed — and the share price went down for most of the day.
So what did the market not like?
A few obvious candidates:
- Funding is not yet fully secured, with roughly $150 million of equity still required.
- The Australian Government offtake appears to be non-binding.
- There may still be uncertainty around the remaining conditions precedent.
Similarly, I would have expected the offtake to need to be binding to satisfy the relevant CP. Again, perhaps this has been varied or agreed with the lenders. If so, that is also a significant achievement.
On the Australian Government offtake, I am not too worried about it being non-binding at this stage. My guess is that the government framework is still being set up and may not yet be ready to execute a binding offtake in the way a private counterparty would. Also, given a large portion of the debt support is coming from Australian Government-linked sources anyway, in some ways the government is effectively agreeing with itself.
Now, the positives from today are significant:
- Construction can begin.
- Money can start flowing.
- People can be hired.
- Contracts can be tendered and signed.
- Orders can be placed for long-lead items.
- The Phase 2 business case can be developed.
- HREE extraction process design can be progressed and finalised.
- Additional ore supply agreements can begin to be negotiated.
- Strategic acquisitions can be considered.
- And yes, the ARU FID 2026 T-shirts can finally be worn.
Theory 1: Selling into the FID news
There were probably some holders who bought near the lows over the last year or two, with average prices around 15–20 cents. Selling today around 30 cents may have doubled their money, which is not a bad return for a year’s hold.
But they could also have sold last week around 36 cents, or even higher a few months ago. And given the way other rare earth names have moved on major strategic news — MP Materials and Lynas being obvious examples — I suspect many holders were expecting a stronger reaction than this.
So yes, some selling into the news probably added pressure. But I do not think it fully explains today’s move.
Theory 2: The shorters
This is the part that frustrates me.
If you look back across ARU’s previous capital raises, the short position often seems to rise before a raise is announced. Then, once the raise is completed and shares are issued, the short position appears to fall back again.
See more here: https://forum.rareearthexchanges.com/threads/aru-sharemarket-manipulation.5/
This pattern deserves scrutiny!!!
There has been no capital raise announced yet. Therefore, the raise price has not been set. If short sellers can keep the share price down ahead of a raise, then the eventual placement price may be lower, and their exit strategy becomes far more profitable.
So how much of today’s trading was genuine selling, and how much was deliberate pressure to hold the share price down?
This is where the ASX and ASIC need to lift their game. In 2026, surely AI and market surveillance tools should be capable of detecting repeated trading patterns, coordinated pressure, and abnormal short activity around capital raisings. At times today, the trading looked very deliberate — shares being thrown onto the market to create downward momentum and suppress the price.
And as always, retail investors are operating with delayed short data, while the big end of town has far better visibility. How is that a level playing field?
The key question now is this:
How long do the shorters need to keep pressure on the share price before the capital raise is announced?
Or — and this would be the dream outcome for shareholders — can Darryl pull off a massive win and secure the US$300 million from EXIM, reducing or removing the need for further equity?
Because if that happens, those short positions may need to be bought back on market.
Bring on the squeeze.
Any other thougths out there?
Last edited:
Yeah...we are thinking along the same lines....
I would add some additonal future catalysts
- Acquistions (my guess will be NTU, VHM and mabye ATR?)
- Ore purchase agreements (again...maybe from the three above instead of acquistions....also some mines in Africa and South East Asia)
- A JV with a USA Partner (my guess is ReElement...)
- Phase 2 acceleration
- Confirmation of the HREE that can be extracted from the SEG using ionic extraction.
- EXIM funding
patarnoster
Active member
Im with you on this, I have 'hope' for a shorters burn with equity being billed as a loan or maybe it would be done via an offtaker in USA who would then give cash to ARU for equity?
Games are being played.
Either way there is still more to come...
patarnoster
Active member
Disappointed to say the least. Sure there is more to come, eg, announcements around last offtakes, but I dont imagien any catclayst going forward for any major rerate until production.
