You're on the money (again) I reckon, inventories are key and it's early days.
Rest of world is pivoting and China is countering, with the conflict of an (historic) average 18 years to bring a mine online and net zero targets looming ever closer, reality will be the winner here.
There are those that seen this coming and acted, those that seen this coming and did nothing, and those that had no idea of this.
China has the upper hand through decades of careful orchestration, they do not suffer fools and will press the advantage they have built to the very end.
ROW needs to act outside the box if they want to change course quickly, reality knows not time.