https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/humanoid-robot-market-5-trillion-by-2050
Amazing anlysis by the team at Morgan Stanley.
See our REEx Media article here:
https://rareearthexchanges.com/news...anoid-thesis-sparks-rare-earth-demand-debate/
Key points to note:
So my key takeaway..... the robot age could result in massive supply issues for NdPr....and even if half this forecast plays out, demand destruction won’t come from substitution — it’ll come from lack of supply. We will need many times more NdPr mines......regardless of the China/Ex-China games....
btw - if you can't access the full version (it is about 80 pages), email me at John@rareearthexchanges.com and i can email you a copy.
Amazing anlysis by the team at Morgan Stanley.
See our REEx Media article here:
https://rareearthexchanges.com/news...anoid-thesis-sparks-rare-earth-demand-debate/
Key points to note:
- Humanoid robots = NdPr surge: Each robot is forecast to need 0.9kg of NdPr on average. With up to 1 billion units expected by 2050, this is no sideshow — humanoids could add 167% more NdPr demand vs 2030 levels by 2050. I have seen other anlaysis that says even more.
- Deficits incoming: NdPr market flips into deficit from 2039 onwards. By 2050, the shortfall could hit 35% of supply. That’s massive.
- Price upgrade: Morgan Stanley lifts its long-term NdPr price target to US$209/kg ex-VAT (was US$135/kg). Supply just isn’t keeping up.
- China’s chokehold: China still controls >70% of refined NdPr supply out to 2050. West’s share of humanoid sales? >70%. Let that sink in.
- New magnets, same bottleneck: Even with efforts to sub out NdPr in magnets (e.g. iron nitrides), they’re years off. No serious short-term fix as i have said over and over again. It has take 40 years to get the NdPr magnets to the point they are today.
- Lynas and Iluka upgraded: Morgan Stanley upgrades Lynas and Iluka to Overweight, citing direct leverage to this new demand vector. I'm not so sure on thier analysis here.
So my key takeaway..... the robot age could result in massive supply issues for NdPr....and even if half this forecast plays out, demand destruction won’t come from substitution — it’ll come from lack of supply. We will need many times more NdPr mines......regardless of the China/Ex-China games....
btw - if you can't access the full version (it is about 80 pages), email me at John@rareearthexchanges.com and i can email you a copy.
