Possible deal with China and the impact on ARU

[EddyMoney87]

*CHINA AND US REACH TRADE CONSENSUS, TRUMP AND XI TO FINALIZE

Negotiations covered export controls, tariff suspensions, shipping fees, fentanyl-related measures, anti-drug cooperation and trade expansion.

Bears are dead… Send it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1982421685908492452

Now the million-dollar question is, will this be a tailwind or a headwind?

The West has now one year to diversify. Will this lead to a more rapid investment or will it break down the hype?

I guess ARU now is in the front row for people, companies, and governments who want to be in the space.

 

[patarnoster]

Expect red, and then ARU will send it.

These deals happen every quarter...

 

[John]

Expect red, and then ARU will send it.

These deals happen every quarter...

I agree. This seems to happen about every quarter....and we need to think why?

Is Trump spinning some of his "art of the deal?" Ha ha. But I do think this is his strategy. Keep kicking the real deal down the road....and just stop China from doing a full shutdown of RE. And gives the ex-China a chance to get started.

The problem with this strategy...is that I think you can only do this for maybe 1-2 years. And the Ex-China market will take at least 4-5 years to be at any meaningful scale. Why?

Well.....even ARU, if FID was agreed today...would not have product at meaningful scale till 2028-29. And no HREE till at least 2029/30.

And all the other projects.....lets not kid ourselves....they are still getting lots of their inputs (like reagnets) from China! And lots of equipment etc.

I was also talking to a USA trader (physcial) in RE last week....and I said...if I can get you some product...what would you pay. And he said zero. And he explained why, there is no magnet market yet, at scale, in USA. And what is there, they have been stockpiling RE for a number of years.

So that doesn't mean the deficit is not coming. It just means it is about 2 years away. That is roughly how long it take for a magnet manufacturer to get into production (not that long really). But RE oxide takes about 10-15 years to get into production......and that is where the massive deficit will come from.

Just as ARU is about to come online (or close to).

(above is not investment advice...need to stress that)