Will China ressume their issuance of rare earth export permits

[John]

https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/trump-motivated-for-direct-talk-with-xi-as-rare-earth-export-dispute-challenges-mount/


So where does this all go from here?

Does China want to escalate this further and/or prolong it? If they prolong this course of action, ex-China supply chains will start to run out of product towards the end of 2025. Does China want to flex it's RE muscles to the world? This will likely accelerate ex-China supply of RE and magnets etc.

So i think China will likely start to ease these export restrictions in the next few months, and get some type of better deal out of Trump. Or try to.


But why doesn't Trump just throw lots of govt money at all the ex-China rare earth and magnet projects....it is not his style to be beholdent to another country...So will he do a deal.

I'm guessing Trump's people will be screaming at him, about the effects on the USA economy if he doesn't do a deal to get the Chinese rare earths and magnets moving again....But he will also start spending lots of Govt cash on the RE and magnet sector.

What do others think?

 

[Fundamental]

I think we are perhaps overreacting as far as USA's DoD requirements are concerned, MP, E-Vac, MCEIP and TDA will probably be able to meet Defense Department requirements fairly soon. However, I seriously doubt that will include sufficient capacity for American Industry, especially if Donalds "bring manufacturing home" policy has any hope of success. There is probably sufficient mining capacity coming on-line over the next decade, Lynas, Arafura, Pensana and the Brazilian IAC's are big enough deposits to provide long term stability, and there appear to be substantial process/refining capacity in the planning stages. What appears to be lacking at the moment are the magnet sintering and machining facilities, something that I doubt will take very long to establish with a little help from the Japanese and Europeans.

 

[John]

From what I understand, the DoD is scambling. The USA auto makers are far ahead of DoD. So DoD is working out what to do....lots of discussions happening...

Interesting that the the auto makers in India, Japan and Europe are all scrambling to secure magnets.....and have gone 'cap in hand' to China....