Recent content by patarnoster

  1. patarnoster

    Modelling Arafura

    Thats what i was thinking, calculating based on NDPR output. Good call.
  2. patarnoster

    Modelling Arafura

    I like the look of this :P
  3. patarnoster

    Dec 2025 Quarterly

    Yeah agreed on all points, the JV will probably still happen maybe for Phase 2
  4. patarnoster

    Dec 2025 Quarterly

    I think its the offtake thats causing the delay.
  5. patarnoster

    Modelling Arafura

    My view is similar, regarding that 47c - 50c however that I think is the minium, I will add that it peaked at 62c with no FID and no funding certainty, so... that says a lot about FOMO. With that in mind, if we take LYC as an example, they trade at A$2 to 2.5 billion per 1,000 tpa of NdPr...
  6. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    While todays SP shows a incoming delay, the entire sector is red thanks to the USA, I would not be surprised if this all hinges of hundreds of dominos falling before GRMF, eg. as you said SMR... ARU has never been the fast cat in the game.
  7. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    What I would like to see is a USA based offtaker, for thie US EXIM loan to be finalised, as thats the requirment. Weather its for Phase 2 or 1 doesn't matter.
  8. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    Low shorts is the best indicator. I think GRMF is due Mid to End Feb, pushing into march is going to cause havoc. Next week is going to be dry, unless we see SP run up with high volume, nothing much is on the horizon till Feb.
  9. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    I don't think quarterlies are used to annoucne new things... companies want max market exposire for anything positive, its going to be anothing burger if no annoucment before hand.
  10. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    Zee Germans take their DD seriously… They are all island time at this rate
  11. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    Either we go into TH on Tuesday or Wednesday or Quarterly (Thursday) is going to wreck the SP without anything material... excuses won't do. HOWEVER I will add someone on HC got an email from Penelope saying there are Material Updates in the Quarterly coming up in reply to frustration on...
  12. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    Yeah exactly. I believe it may have only been German share holders but not 100% sure
  13. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    Yeah according to a bit of googling, it’s a pre requisite for signing large govt funding.
  14. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    A HC thread noted brokers have had a request for peoples names on the register, this tends to be a process before signing a govt contract. This would explain the afternoon crash today with the call going out then, but it may be the finalisation of the equity
  15. patarnoster

    Arafura - General Discussion

    Certainly something is brewing, could be big, the LYC departure was a surprise, but I think it would be hard to connect it back to ARU… but stranger things have happened and this project is a unicorn in the first place.
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