Arafura - General Discussion

[SJVR]

My thoughts are they placed it 60 days away from today so that there is a buffer to announce the leftover equity piece and offtakes before the 11th May (minimum 30 days) latest notice date so they can bundle all the equity approvals from shareholders on the 8th June date.

I don’t think we shareholders approve FID, the board do. We approve the equity which allows the FID.

 

[patarnoster]

My thoughts are they placed it 60 days away from today so that there is a buffer to announce the leftover equity piece and offtakes before the 11th May (minimum 30 days) latest notice date so they can bundle all the equity approvals from shareholders on the 8th June date.

I don’t think we shareholders approve FID, the board do. We approve the equity which allows the FID.

That’s right, what I mean is there is no fid without vote for the shares, but the board calls fid way earlier. We’re in the window now for oftakes and then board calling fid

 

[John]

It has to be done by 30 June otherwise CEO doesn't get some of his performance shares.

Lets hope it is finally done...and we can move on to:
- Construction Milestones
- Commisioning
- Phase 2
- HREE
- EXIM and that US$300
- Some tolling contracts
- Some acquisitions
- Some presales of spot product

 

[patarnoster]

ARU offtake, Japan angle, and timing off the back of the AU JP agreement.​

Japan involvement

• Japan is actively shaping rare earth pricing, not just buying
• Lynas has locked Japan in to 2038 at ~AUD $110/kg floor pricing
• ARU said they are “engaging with some of the same parties”
• That likely means Japanese trading houses, magnet makers, Tier 1 supply chain

Offtake situation

• ARU needs one final offtake, ~1200tpa, to meet lender requirements
• Multiple regions involved, US, Europe, Korea, and likely Japan
• Key point, multiple parties bidding, but only one remaining slot
• “Whoever gets there first gets the offtake”

Important nuance

• This is not multiple small deals adding up to 1200tpa
• This is one final agreement
• Could be a single buyer or a coordinated supply chain deal across OEMs and Tier 1s

Australia–Japan agreement

• Government level framework, not a project list
• Supports non-China supply chains and pricing floors
• Encourages Japanese companies to fund and secure supply
• Positive for ARU but not a direct trigger for a deal

Where ARU sits

• Very small pool of viable projects in Australia
• Lynas already supplying Japan
• Iluka more processing focused
• ARU is the next major NdPr project in line
• Clearly in the active negotiation pool but not guaranteed

Timing and 12 May theory

• Shareholder vote requires 28 days notice
• If vote is around 10 June, notice would be mid-May
• Offtake and equity need to be agreed before notice is issued
• Missing mid-May does not break the deal, it just delays the timeline

Sequence to FID

• Offtake signed
• Equity locked
• Notice of meeting issued
• Shareholder vote
• FID called

Bottom line

• Japan is in the mix and actively involved in pricing and supply chains
• ARU is talking to the same counterparties as Lynas
• Final 1200tpa is competitive and not pre-assigned
• Australia–Japan deal is supportive but not decisive
• Mid-May is a timing target, not a hard deadline

That’s the current state IMO, still comes down to who wins the final offtake and on what terms.

Thoughts ?