ARU - 2025 GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE PRESENTATION

[John]

CLICK HERE FOR THE PRESENTATION

I haven't really looked carefully at the latest bunch of presentations. But ARU have really honed their slides.

I note the following have been updated in the way they present their story:
- For me the demand/supply slides were very good and tell a compelling story. (Slides 6-9)
- And the slides regarding the market cap of its peers, also shows how progressed ARU is, and how undervalued it is... (Slide 9)
- The location slide is also good to explain that Nolans is in the middle of Aust...but has lots of infrastructure on its doorstep. (Slide 3)

So it is worth a look.

What do others think of the slides? Anything missing? Maybe a slide on the JV?

 

[patarnoster]

Here is what I noticed (Numbers are PDF file pages) as there are missing pages it seems.

• P4 - Robotics now in presentations
• P4 - Demand to double in 2037 instead of 2032 - hmmm
• P4 - This is a new highlight "Nolans sits comfortably in first quartile of cost curve"
• P4 - SEG / HRE oxide now increased to 573, this now includes 99 tpa HRE
• P5 - Great to see the map and how good the access is.
• P6 - "Sufficient liquidity to CY2026", this calendar year is it, otherwise another CR.
• P8 & P9 - Highlighting the 1.2bn critical minerals reserve, ARU must be in the running for some of this?? Proposed stockpiling critical raw materials for national security will drive increased transparency on trade/pricing
• P9 - INDIA ??? That's new isnt it? and US is back on the menu.
• P11 - This is really interesting, low cost producer, can competer with China maybe.
• P13 - Offtake discussions now focused on parties bringing strategic value including equity investment. Does this sound like things have acctualy progressed? hah...
• P13 - THere is only 1200 tpa left in the first batch of 80%, its a smaller portion than KIA and Hyundai, I wonder what kind of equity is on offer. JV wise I think its going to be for phase 2...
  
  Here is something else, back in offtake negotiations it was only Asia & Europe for awhile, then USA got removed and now added back in.
  
  So now we have Asia & Europe 1625 tpa and Europe and USA for 2,815, which is an increase from the previous presentations, which were 2515 tpa for asia and europe.
  
  
  
• P15 - My favourite - this "Remaining new equity requirement of US$660m" this is nice to see. the pie just got smaller, with a good outcome for shareholders thanks to NRFC.
• P17 - Government seeded funds with supply chain diversification mandate - is now under customer and corner store, maybe indicating the Critical minerals deal.

That's my key takeaways, i guess we wait till the next Price Sensitive announcements.

 

[John]

India was maybe going to take our Phosphoric acid (spelling?).

 

[Szalva]

Interesting also, that in the market slide page 9 with the mines development funnel, there is no Iluka mentioned. Or did I miss it?

Why should they not mention Iluka, as one of the peers?

 

[patarnoster]

Interesting also, that in the market slide page 9 with the mines development funnel, there is no Iluka mentioned. Or did I miss it?

Why should they not mention Iluka, as one of the peers?

No Illuka, maybe a JV partner... maybe...

 

[patarnoster]

Arafura + Iluka JV: Strategic Rationale​

Why It’s Logical:

Both are Australian critical minerals players with NdPr-focused downstream ambitions and government support. Rather than compete, aligning could unlock synergies across processing, supply security, and international positioning.

Strategic & Operational Benefits​

• Processing Synergy:
  
  Iluka is building a government-funded $1.5B rare earth refinery in Eneabba, targeting production of separated oxides, including NdPr, Dy, and Tb. Arafura’s Nolans project includes its own integrated refinery. A JV could coordinate processing flows, avoid duplication, or create a shared tolling pathway.
• Heavy & Light RE Integration:
  
  Arafura is primarily light rare earths (NdPr), while Iluka will process both light and heavy REs from monazite feedstock. A partnership gives both companies flexibility to offer full-spectrum RE products.
• Government Alignment:
  
  Both companies are backed by the Australian government — Arafura with ~A$840M support, Iluka with A$1.25B in direct grants and loans. A JV could solidify Australia’s central role in global rare earths outside China and strengthen Canberra’s narrative around supply chain security.

---

Commercial Benefits​

• Customer Diversification:
  
  Arafura has offtakes with Hyundai, Kia, Siemens. Iluka has links into the nuclear and defense sectors through monazite byproducts and global customers. A JV could bundle products and contracts under a single, scalable entity.
• Marketing Strength:
  
  A united front helps secure longer-term, higher-value contracts with major OEMs. It also reduces market confusion — right now, both are courting similar customers.
• De-risking Capital Allocation:
  
  Coordinating infrastructure spend could lower capex duplication, especially if Arafura uses parts of Iluka’s Eneabba facility instead of building duplicate capabilities.

---

Why Iluka Might Be Interested​

• Supply Assurance:
  
  Iluka doesn’t own a rare earth mine. It sources RE-rich monazite as a byproduct. Partnering with Arafura secures long-term NdPr oxide feedstock from a known, stable source.
• Vertical Integration Goals:
  
  Iluka wants to move downstream into refined oxides. Arafura’s upstream mining + midstream refining model complements Iluka’s ambitions to own more of the value chain.
• Government Pressure to Deliver:
  
  Iluka has accepted massive government funding. Partnering with Arafura helps ensure success, de-risks commissioning, and could pool Australia’s best talent and tech in one JV.

---

Why Arafura Might Be Interested​

• Redundancy in Refining:
  
  Sharing Iluka’s refinery capacity allows Arafura to focus capital on mining operations, especially if ramping up quickly.
• Tolling Option for Heavy REs:
  
  Arafura is currently planning to toll its heavy RE concentrate offshore (Canada’s SRC). Iluka’s refinery might offer a domestic solution with better economics.
• National Champion Status:
  
  Teaming with Iluka would elevate Arafura as part of a flagship national rare earths effort — helpful in future funding, branding, and offtake discussions.

---

Long-Term Potential​

• Australia-led Rare Earths Powerhouse
  
  A combined Iluka-Arafura JV could be Australia’s answer to Lynas, fully integrated from mine to separated oxides, with better ESG credentials, government alignment, and global supply contracts.
• Export Magnet Materials or Partner Globally
  
  If refining capacity is coordinated, they could add magnet manufacturing or alloying capabilities locally — or co-invest in international JV plants.

 

[John]

No Illuka, maybe a JV partner... maybe...

The other reason might be not to draw attention to the fact that ILU is in construction and its market cap is about $1.7b and has not bounced on the news of FID or construction.

ILU is not a pure rare earth play. They have the mineral sands business, and that is not doing that well.

And ILU has also not signed up their binding off take agreements....but with Aust Govt as buyer of last resort.....this shouldn't be an issue.

But i guess the market is also worried about cost overruns. I mean they went back to the Aust Govt for more money...and they hadn't even started constrcution...

 

[patarnoster]

The other reason might be not to draw attention to the fact that ILU is in construction and its market cap is about $1.7b and has not bounced on the news of FID or construction.

ILU is not a pure rare earth play. They have the mineral sands business, and that is not doing that well.

And ILU has also not signed up their binding off take agreements....but with Aust Govt as buyer of last resort.....this shouldn't be an issue.

But i guess the market is also worried about cost overruns. I mean they went back to the Aust Govt for more money...and they hadn't even started constrcution...

The FID for them was a few years back tho right, 2022? And even since then its been a pretty troublesome run.