Chart Update 30April

SilentStu

New member
1st time posting a chart here so please be aware that the wave count is not time dependent whatsoever. These wave counts are just a guide of levels that it should hit working with Fibonacci principles and are based / pllotted according to the recent W1 and W2.

The weekly chart below shows we are currently working on major W(iii) at $0.93. How it gets there depends on how the waves form and what actual levels they achieve along the way, then dictates the following waves there on. In modelling of waves it is obviously a fluid thing that gets re-visited regularly to update on how the market has performed on the individual waves to reach the targets. This current wave should end at approximately to $.46 region for W1. Once the retracement to W2 us in place, we then get a better idea of where the following W3, W4 and W5 will reach. Of course, some waves can be shallower than normal or extend a lot further dependent on news that's released.

aru 3d.webp


Drilling down further to the 1D chart shown below you will see that we are aiming for sub w3 before it pulls back for w4 & then continues on to w5 at approximately the $.46 Target, completing W1. Note on the weekly chart shown above the stochastic is riding very high, likewise on the 1D chart below. I would hope to see a pull back to approximately $0.33 in a healthy retrace for a subway for w(iv) on this 1d chart, before then pushing up for w(v) of w3 (approx $0.42). This would allow the 1D & 3D stochastic's to reset before it puts its next wave up. We may be seeing this now, however it usually happens once W3 at $0.42 is complete which would actually make more sense. W4 is usually a longer more protracted wave before it then starts its final wave up for W5. I would definitely like to see the 1D & 3D stochastics reset before I considered adding to my position.


aru 1d.webp

After reading comments, it seems that the consensus is that once FID is achieved, the price will then slump considerably due to cost implementation of constructing the mine. Am I right with assuming this?
Of course, as time plays out, the charts and Fibonacci levels will alter accordingly.
Best of luck all.
 
1st time posting a chart here so please be aware that the wave count is not time dependent whatsoever. These wave counts are just a guide of levels that it should hit working with Fibonacci principles and are based / pllotted according to the recent W1 and W2.

The weekly chart below shows we are currently working on major W(iii) at $0.93. How it gets there depends on how the waves form and what actual levels they achieve along the way, then dictates the following waves there on. In modelling of waves it is obviously a fluid thing that gets re-visited regularly to update on how the market has performed on the individual waves to reach the targets. This current wave should end at approximately to $.46 region for W1. Once the retracement to W2 us in place, we then get a better idea of where the following W3, W4 and W5 will reach. Of course, some waves can be shallower than normal or extend a lot further dependent on news that's released.

View attachment 134


Drilling down further to the 1D chart shown below you will see that we are aiming for sub w3 before it pulls back for w4 & then continues on to w5 at approximately the $.46 Target, completing W1. Note on the weekly chart shown above the stochastic is riding very high, likewise on the 1D chart below. I would hope to see a pull back to approximately $0.33 in a healthy retrace for a subway for w(iv) on this 1d chart, before then pushing up for w(v) of w3 (approx $0.42). This would allow the 1D & 3D stochastic's to reset before it puts its next wave up. We may be seeing this now, however it usually happens once W3 at $0.42 is complete which would actually make more sense. W4 is usually a longer more protracted wave before it then starts its final wave up for W5. I would definitely like to see the 1D & 3D stochastics reset before I considered adding to my position.


View attachment 135

After reading comments, it seems that the consensus is that once FID is achieved, the price will then slump considerably due to cost implementation of constructing the mine. Am I right with assuming this?
Of course, as time plays out, the charts and Fibonacci levels will alter accordingly.
Best of luck all.
Thanks for posting very interesting.

I would note a couple of things with charting a stock against a back drop of a significant catalyst and company rerate.

  • ARU currently is a explorer, pre financing, pre FID, pending a signifiant catalyst to go into production, with that in mind the price today, cannot reflect the construction phase, its different metrics, I think post FID, during constrcuiton charting may be better, at this stage its a binary outcome.
  • Will it sell off after FID? Maybe... the theory is that a rerate happens when a company goes from financing to construction, so a new base should form, what the base is, may be the question, see example lifecycle below:

    1777513547262.webp
  • Based on this general example we are kicking off the development phase, (2009 on the second example) I expect a peak price to be reached near production which sort of matches with Wave 5.
  • So, cost to implement construction is neither here nor there, because the project is being built, so there is upside.
  • Funds and institutions buy up after FID due to risk profile changing.
The above is a general view of a mining asset, but here is what makes ARU unique.

  • First off - It’s not a commodity mine, it’s a strategic supply chain asset
  • Ex-China supply is the whole thesis - ARU is the only mine to oxide project in Australia, all others eg LYC have some sovereignty risk.
  • It has the lowest cost of production due to the sulphuric acid by product, noting it may even be lower than China.
  • It is a strategic asset backed by multiple countries, not something seen before, at all, which may invite large institutional interest.
  • There are bets on this being the future of manufacturing in Australia.
  • Pricing isn’t “market price”, it’s negotiated, contracts have floors protecting downside for investors, for a decade.
  • USA involvement for Heavy REE and Phase 2 expansion adds signifiant upside.

I guess what Im getting at, while the market is efficient, this is an interesting asset that has a lot of things going for it, and I don't think we can do any TA until after FID, as it will set the scene for the next 14 years, based on the off takes and contracts.

Thoughts?
 
Thanks @SilentStu

Stu has made some incredible trades with ARU using his approach in the past (hope you don't mind me saying this). Wish i had of listened when he sold out at about 60 cents (something like that).

The thing to remember, is that there are lots of trading bots out there. And there is also the psychology of trading. These rules that Stu follows, really seems to fit into this type of movement in the markets.

In my opinion, i think the following will happen:
- Upon FID, it will bounce up....i reckon to at least 70 cents
- Then for the next few years, as construction occurs, it may fade.
- When commissioning occurs...it will bump up again. Probably to over $1.00

BTW - this is not what I think the company is valued at (ie and NPV). Have a look at MP Materials. I valued it at around $20-30. Maybe $40-50 if everything went perfect and they scale a bit more. I bought at $15 (i think...cant remember)...and I sold at about $85 (again i can't remember exactly). It got to $97....now back around $60.

And ARU is a MUCH better project than MP Materials. And the long term fundamentals of ARU mean it will be very valuable. But that doesn't mean its share price won't go up an down. Which presents trading opportunities.

Key things that will affect the ARU SP:
- Ex-China pricing or floor pricing
- More chinese restrictions
- acquisitions
- tolling
- sourcing product
- phase 2
- HREE expansion
- etc.

Once FID is achieved. I will do some work at what those trading opportunities will look like.
 
Thanks @SilentStu

Stu has made some incredible trades with ARU using his approach in the past (hope you don't mind me saying this). Wish i had of listened when he sold out at about 60 cents (something like that).

The thing to remember, is that there are lots of trading bots out there. And there is also the psychology of trading. These rules that Stu follows, really seems to fit into this type of movement in the markets.

In my opinion, i think the following will happen:
- Upon FID, it will bounce up....i reckon to at least 70 cents
- Then for the next few years, as construction occurs, it may fade.
- When commissioning occurs...it will bump up again. Probably to over $1.00

BTW - this is not what I think the company is valued at (ie and NPV). Have a look at MP Materials. I valued it at around $20-30. Maybe $40-50 if everything went perfect and they scale a bit more. I bought at $15 (i think...cant remember)...and I sold at about $85 (again i can't remember exactly). It got to $97....now back around $60.

And ARU is a MUCH better project than MP Materials. And the long term fundamentals of ARU mean it will be very valuable. But that doesn't mean its share price won't go up an down. Which presents trading opportunities.

Key things that will affect the ARU SP:
- Ex-China pricing or floor pricing
- More chinese restrictions
- acquisitions
- tolling
- sourcing product
- phase 2
- HREE expansion
- etc.

Once FID is achieved. I will do some work at what those trading opportunities will look like.
I look forward to seeing those trade suggestions :)
 
China gave a 12 month reprieve on the RE restrictions.....that is when it ends.

Also note....1 Jan 2027....US military is supposed to me totally china magnet free.....
Good luck with that, I say to the US... okay I get ya.

Deals will be made, which will cause a drop for sure in the stock... Can charting really account for that?
 
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