Dec 2025 Quarterly

[John]

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ARU/03050057.pdf


Key points:

• Funding to be locked in by end of Q1 2026. (no change there)
• FID in Q2 (this is new - why not have everything ready for when the Germans post us the money? It would be the quickest board meeting ever....FID...tick. Done. Just get those shovels that have been ready...digging!
• HREE increase in SEG - "is consistent with expectations" - So from my notes "the DFS already had ~474 tpa of SEG/HRE, but Dy/Tb was a modest slice (~70–120 tpa). With the flowsheet uplift, ARU could be trying to push Dy/Tb recovery closer to ~100–150 tpa total, enough to matter strategically for OEMs — even if not a huge revenue driver." With the work continuing into 2026...i guess it will be timed with the US$300 million?
• Interesting that they say "dysprosium and terbium are reported at 4-5 times the China domestic traded price." 4-5 times the price....if you can get it!!!

What was not said:
- Nothing on the Joint Venture...
- US-EXIM - would be good to know if this is for HREE, or Phase 2 or acuisition of say NTU or VHM or Barkly Rare Earths (Gavin's new company).

Given the recent USA Rare Earths funding by Trump.......really makes you question why we are pandering to the Germans.....

 

[patarnoster]

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ARU/03050057.pdf


Key points:

• Funding to be locked in by end of Q1 2026. (no change there)
• FID in Q2 (this is new - why not have everything ready for when the Germans post us the money? It would be the quickest board meeting ever....FID...tick. Done. Just get those shovels that have been ready...digging!
• HREE increase in SEG - "is consistent with expectations" - So from my notes "the DFS already had ~474 tpa of SEG/HRE, but Dy/Tb was a modest slice (~70–120 tpa). With the flowsheet uplift, ARU could be trying to push Dy/Tb recovery closer to ~100–150 tpa total, enough to matter strategically for OEMs — even if not a huge revenue driver." With the work continuing into 2026...i guess it will be timed with the US$300 million?
• Interesting that they say "dysprosium and terbium are reported at 4-5 times the China domestic traded price." 4-5 times the price....if you can get it!!!

What was not said:
- Nothing on the Joint Venture...
- US-EXIM - would be good to know if this is for HREE, or Phase 2 or acuisition of say NTU or VHM or Barkly Rare Earths (Gavin's new company).

Given the recent USA Rare Earths funding by Trump.......really makes you question why we are pandering to the Germans.....

I think its the offtake thats causing the delay.

 

[John]

Nothing really new.

Some points:
- Its true that the delays would have improved pricing and betters the economics for the company
- The joint venture discussions have stopped. But may come up later? Interesting. Why later?
- FID in Q2.....i think this was always going to happen. Because the timelines for shareholder approvals with ASX rules etc. But i do exepect that the ARU SP should jump on the annoucement of binding $134m equity and the offtake. The FID and ASX approvals are just formalities. Everyone is going to Vote yes.....

If you want to see what the China market is doing now to try to stop a company progressing....go have a look at NTU!!!

 

[patarnoster]

Nothing really new.

Some points:
- Its true that the delays would have improved pricing and betters the economics for the company
- The joint venture discussions have stopped. But may come up later? Interesting. Why later?
- FID in Q2.....i think this was always going to happen. Because the timelines for shareholder approvals with ASX rules etc. But i do exepect that the ARU SP should jump on the annoucement of binding $134m equity and the offtake. The FID and ASX approvals are just formalities. Everyone is going to Vote yes.....

If you want to see what the China market is doing now to try to stop a company progressing....go have a look at NTU!!!

Yeah agreed on all points, the JV will probably still happen maybe for Phase 2

 

[WideMouthFrog]

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ARU/03050057.pdf


Key points:

• Funding to be locked in by end of Q1 2026. (no change there)
• FID in Q2 (this is new - why not have everything ready for when the Germans post us the money? It would be the quickest board meeting ever....FID...tick. Done. Just get those shovels that have been ready...digging!
• HREE increase in SEG - "is consistent with expectations" - So from my notes "the DFS already had ~474 tpa of SEG/HRE, but Dy/Tb was a modest slice (~70–120 tpa). With the flowsheet uplift, ARU could be trying to push Dy/Tb recovery closer to ~100–150 tpa total, enough to matter strategically for OEMs — even if not a huge revenue driver." With the work continuing into 2026...i guess it will be timed with the US$300 million?
• Interesting that they say "dysprosium and terbium are reported at 4-5 times the China domestic traded price." 4-5 times the price....if you can get it!!!

What was not said:
- Nothing on the Joint Venture...
- US-EXIM - would be good to know if this is for HREE, or Phase 2 or acuisition of say NTU or VHM or Barkly Rare Earths (Gavin's new company).

Given the recent USA Rare Earths funding by Trump.......really makes you question why we are pandering to the Germans.....

With $600m sitting in the bank and staff effectively idle for two years - and with him stating that FID will happen, not “if” but “when” - the logical move is to start construction. Place the orders. Begin the work.

What exactly is so difficult about getting started? This has to be one of the most backward‑moving companies on the planet.

At some point they need to actually execute. Everything is lined up, FEED has been advanced for two years, and yet they’re doing nothing except posting about management soft skills. Why sit on their hands talking about the future, when the groundwork is already done and they could get ahead of the game?

And to top it off, we had to endure the most generic, content‑free explanation of construction progress I’ve ever heard. Inviting a South African onto a panel, when everyone knows how corrupt South African business is…. And considering investors lack of trust for ARU, it was baffling.

If the aim was to look completely inept, slow, directionless, and delusional, they nailed it - because that’s exactly how they came across today.

 

[John]

With $600m sitting in the bank and staff effectively idle for two years - and with him stating that FID will happen, not “if” but “when” - the logical move is to start construction. Place the orders. Begin the work.

What exactly is so difficult about getting started? This has to be one of the most backward‑moving companies on the planet.

At some point they need to actually execute. Everything is lined up, FEED has been advanced for two years, and yet they’re doing nothing except posting about management soft skills. Why sit on their hands talking about the future, when the groundwork is already done and they could get ahead of the game?

And to top it off, we had to endure the most generic, content‑free explanation of construction progress I’ve ever heard. Inviting a South African onto a panel, when everyone knows how corrupt South African business is…. And considering investors lack of trust for ARU, it was baffling.

If the aim was to look completely inept, slow, directionless, and delusional, they nailed it - because that’s exactly how they came across today.

yeah it has been a long journey with ARU. And i totally understand that the last bit always seems to take the longest.

It is pretty unusual for funds to be applied to construction without FID. That being said, have a look at Pensana. They have been able to convince their lenders to use their funds on construciton without any binding offtake.

Lets just hope they can nail the last US$134 million and get digging.

 

[WideMouthFrog]

Yeah agreed on all points, the JV will probably still happen maybe for Phase 2

When it takes eight years just to reach FID, and with so much foul play, it’s hard to believe they’ll deliver a JV that actually creates value for shareholders.

I wouldn’t be holding my breath on the timing of this false promise.

 

[WideMouthFrog]

yeah it has been a long journey with ARU. And i totally understand that the last bit always seems to take the longest.

It is pretty unusual for funds to be applied to construction without FID. That being said, have a look at Pensana. They have been able to convince their lenders to use their funds on construciton without any binding offtake.

Lets just hope they can nail the last US$134 million and get digging.

The time for kindness for this management came and went many years ago, One cannot possibly get so much, so wrong, for so many years, and think they have earnt respect or the kindness, and get away with ‘the last bit takes longest’.

Respect is earnt, and when you make blunder after blunder, at the cost of the shareholders you work for, you need to either resign or not ask to be rewarded with 10million shares.

They just ‘happen’ to leave out dilution in their TSV calcs. So, whilst they destroy our value, they are rewarded.

This time around, look at the SP and subsequent dilution given to the next round of equity. So those that take the longest, get rewarded? The tardiness of the incoming destroy value and then get their equity at the lower SP? What next…

 

[SJVR-3005]

I'm quite positive about the quarterly and the progress. Obviously frustrated on timelines and constantly moving the goal posts, BUT, seems to be working in their favour with competing offtake parties and negotiating the better price (unsure if we get to know these pricing terms as it might be confidential).

The sector was down and ARU along with it (most likely due to traders, short termers and panic sellers), however, fundamentals haven't changed. From my understanding, ARU weren't relying on US Floor prices with their offtake negotiations already including a price in the contract that would still make them 'profitable'. Wouldn't be surprised if institutions began investing again on the dip (I know I have bought another parcel at $0.22).
End of June is DC's performance shares expiration and I bet he will want to take advantage of this as much as possible as discussed above.

Also, to mention there are a lot of eyes on this project and would be career ending (at least for the reputation) if this does not succeed past the FID stage.

 

[Andrew Ratcliffe]

Also, to mention there are a lot of eyes on this project and would be career ending (at least for the reputation) if this does not succeed past the FID stage.

I recall from my research last summer Cazzubo was ousted from his leadership role by the previous company he ran. I think it was a gold mining outfit. I feel like another L and he's in early retirement. It would be a comfortable retirement cause the C suite folks never experience real consequences but certainly not a note an ambitious man wants to go out on.

 

[John]

I recall from my research last summer Cazzubo was ousted from his leadership role by the previous company he ran. I think it was a gold mining outfit. I feel like another L and he's in early retirement. It would be a comfortable retirement cause the C suite folks never experience real consequences but certainly not a note an ambitious man wants to go out on.

DC was brought in because of his construction experience. So we are yet to see him in his sweet spot...delivering major construction projects.

All that gold stuff...re his last job. I believe he sued them and got an apology? I don't know the details.....but that is what I can remember.

I know that DC has spoken at length about turning ARU into massive company...with acquisitions etc. Time will tell.

It is interesting in his performance clauses...he has to delever the project with a discount!

 

[Andrew Ratcliffe]

DC was brought in because of his construction experience. So we are yet to see him in his sweet spot...delivering major construction projects.

All that gold stuff...re his last job. I believe he sued them and got an apology? I don't know the details.....but that is what I can remember.

I know that DC has spoken at length about turning ARU into massive company...with acquisitions etc. Time will tell.

It is interesting in his performance clauses...he has to delever the project with a discount!

Him being fired was part of my calculus for buying as many shares in the company as I have. I don't know how to make sophisticated models like y'all but I think I know people pretty well and I figured that would light a fire under my ass to show what I could do next time around. Maybe it's silly but I do like researching the people running the show.