Iran situation and rare earths.

[John]

With the U.S. now launching direct attacks on Iran, the global geopolitical chessboard just shifted — and that could have ripple effects for rare earths and broader critical mineral supply chains.

A few immediate questions come to mind:

• Oil markets are already reacting — will rare earths follow? Historically, major Middle East conflicts have triggered energy price spikes and defense spending surges. That kind of global instability tends to refocus attention on strategic resource independence, including rare earths.
• Does this accelerate the West’s urgency to de-risk from China? Any escalation in the Gulf could draw in China or force the U.S. to confront multiple adversaries simultaneously. That raises the strategic value of securing ex-China supply chains for defense-critical inputs like NdPr, Dy, Tb.
• Defense demand tailwind? If this marks the start of sustained military tension, we may see further investment into U.S./Allied defense industrial bases — with rare earths as essential inputs to precision weapons, guidance systems, and naval propulsion.
• Iran’s alignment with China and Russia may harden. That could deepen a global resource bifurcation, where access to certain materials (like HREEs from Africa or Central Asia) becomes more politicized.

This isn’t just a military flashpoint — it may prove to be another catalyst for governments and investors to wake up to the fragility of critical mineral supply chains.

Expect increased political support for projects in Australia, Canada, the U.S., and other aligned jurisdictions. Pricing volatility could follow, especially if China senses an opportunity to exert pressure via its rare earth leverage.


What does people think?

• Does this make U.S. stockpiling more likely?
• Will we see renewed buying interest in ARU, Lynas, MP, or HREE plays?
• Could China preemptively act in the rare earth market?