Jan 2026 Section 232 Executive Order on Processed Critical Minerals

[Deven]

ADJUSTING IMPORTS OF PROCESSED CRITICAL MINERALS AND THEIR DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS INTO THE UNITED STATES​

January 14, 2026
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presiden...r-derivative-products-into-the-united-states/

Highlights:

• "The Secretary of Commerce ... found and advised me of his opinion that processed critical minerals and their derivative products (PCMDPs) are being imported into the United States in such quantities and under such circumstances as to threaten to impair the national security of the United States."
• "The United States is too reliant on foreign sources of PCMDPs, lacks access to a sufficiently secure and reliable supply chain to PCMDPs, is experiencing unsustainable price volatility with respect to critical mineral markets, and is suffering from weakened domestic manufacturing and production capacity of PCMDPs."
• "These circumstances are a significant national security vulnerability that could be exploited by foreign actors; weaken the industrial resilience of the United States; expose the American people to supply chain disruptions, economic instability, and strategic vulnerabilities; and jeopardize the United States’ ability to meet demands for PCMDPs that are essential to its national defense and critical infrastructure."
• "The United States must, among other things, ensure that it has a secure supply chain to obtain PCMDPs and that it has sufficient domestic mining and processing of critical minerals to reduce import reliance on foreign countries." ... "The Secretary recommended a range of actions, including actions to adjust the imports of PCMDPs so that such imports will not threaten to impair the national security."
• "The Secretary and the Trade Representative, and any other senior executive branch officials they deem appropriate, shall jointly pursue negotiation of agreements, ... to address the threatened impairment of the national security with respect to imports of PCMDPs from any country. In negotiating, the Secretary and the Trade Representative should consider price floors for trade in critical minerals and other trade-restricting measures."

 

[Fundamental]

The key word being 'Processed' if that includes RE's downstream of separated Oxides, he is shooting America in the foot. At this stage the US does not have and possibly never will, have the capacity to produce sufficient RE's to fuel its Industries without imports.

 

[John]

The key word being 'Processed' if that includes RE's downstream of separated Oxides, he is shooting America in the foot. At this stage the US does not have and possibly never will, have the capacity to produce sufficient RE's to fuel its Industries without imports.

Its a shit show...and it is all going to blow up towards the end of this year.......then probably some type of "deal" will be struck that kicks the RE can down the road for another 6-12 months....and then repeat.


The thing that I always like to think about....China has been persuing this plan for 30+ years....and they will have war gamed all the things the west can do....

They know long term the west can rebuild their RE sector......but what will they do in the short to medium term....to prolong their advantage.

They are using this playbook...written by their Army Generals in 1999 - Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui

 

[Deven]

Its a shit show...and it is all going to blow up towards the end of this year.......then probably some type of "deal" will be struck that kicks the RE can down the road for another 6-12 months....and then repeat.


The thing that I always like to think about....China has been persuing this plan for 30+ years....and they will have war gamed all the things the west can do....

They know long term the west can rebuild their RE sector......but what will they do in the short to medium term....to prolong their advantage.

They are using this playbook...written by their Army Generals in 1999 - Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui

And, as I'm sure you are completely aware of, but it's worthwhile to explicitly state because I think the uninitiated don't always follow the full consequence,... the advantage lies not just narrowly in dominance of the mineral extracting/processing industries, but in the ability to wield and leverage that dominance to manipulate and control so much more with astounding implication. Imagine yourself being in a submarine and the Chinese being in control of the oxygen supply. That's about how stark it is for our technology-driven modern world. Cheers.

Good reminder of this and what will become increasingly ominous and onerous in the coming year...

https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/china-places-20-japanese-companies-on-export-concern-list-expands-dual-use-controls/?mc_cid=7b6bbc1edf

 

[Fundamental]

So why on earth is the Secretary of Commerce, talking about 'restricting' the import of RE's at this point in time, the US needs to be 'securing' all the supplies of Rare Earths that it can, before China pulls the plug.

 

[Heat.Beat]

All very salient observations above!
We have a predominance of officials here in the US who are not familiar with existential war. For 80 years or so, it’s been largely theoretical, stateside…

I am reminded of the old board game “Risk”, where you accumulate leverage until you think you can run the table in one or two fell swoops.

China sees itself running the table fairly soon. Westerners think they won’t do that, we can starve them out, playing food against their industrial advantage, and so on…

Risk was a game of attrition, there are 1.4 billion Chinese pieces on the table.