Lynas - Quarterly Ending June 2025

[John]

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/02970287.pdf

Summary:

• Record NdPr production – 2,080t, first time exceeding 2,000t in a quarter
• First Dy/Tb (HREE) production outside China in decades
• Revenue up 38% QoQ → A$170.2m
• Average selling price hit A$60.2/kg, highest since July 2022
• Direct magnet-maker demand surging, with more ex-China customer contracts
• MoUs signed for Malaysian upstream supply & a new Korean magnet plant

What was highlighted re MP Materials/Dod/Ex-China Pricing:

• Lynas welcomed recent U.S. administration initiatives aimed at boosting the “rest of world” rare earths supply chain.
• They’re in ongoing talks with the U.S. Government about additional CAPEX for their Seadrift project in Texas (linked to U.S. strategic support).
• They see these U.S. policies as creating a larger, more vibrant non‑China rare earths industry.

I expect the new MP/DoD pricing floor to start to take effect for Lynas off takes in the next 6-12 months...but remember they tend to sign longer term off take agreements...so the new pricing probably won't be refelcted in there....unless break clauses or force majure clauses are triggered.

But we have seen a shift in direction for ex-China pricing.

Have a look at the last 20 quarters......(thanks ChatGPT for this type of analysis)

Quarter Ending	NdPr Price (ex‑VAT)	Lynas Quote	Sentiment Shift
Mar 2022	US$144.2/kg	“The NdPr price … reached US$144.2/kg in March 2022.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	China-indexed – tracking China prices
Jun 2022	US$120/kg	“The average China Domestic Price for NdPr … was US$120/kg.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au, wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	China-indexed – explicitly tied to China
Jun 2023	(not stated but implied low)	“sales receipts … reflecting the lower market prices … External market dynamics … resulted in lower market prices.” (Company Announcements)	China-indexed – following global/China trend
Jun 2024	US$46/kg	“…sales receipts … reflected the low average NdPr price (US$46/kg ex VAT) during the quarter.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	China-indexed – low China-driven pricing
Sep 2024	US$48/kg	“The average NdPr market price was US$48/kg ex VAT during the quarter.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	China-indexed, slight bottoming
Dec 2024	~US$49/kg (China)	“Supply side pressure resulted in average China domestic NdPr price … decreasing from US$56/kg … to US$49/kg.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	Still China-indexed, noting China price moves
Mar 2025	US$53/kg	“The average NdPr market price was US$53/kg ex VAT during the quarter… pricing offers independent of the market index.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	Pivoting – mentions pricing independent of China index
Jun 2025	A$60.2/kg (~US$40/kg)	“ASP jumps to A$60.2/kg… highest since mid‑2022.” (EconoTimes)	Ex‑China-led – China price “no longer relevant”

It is clear that Lynas has seen a clear sentiment shift—from aligning with Chinese NdPr prices to delivering premium, ex‑China pricing.

 

[Szalva]

No doubt a great quarter! They know how to do it. Did they provide any information about their production costs / ton?

 

[RareEarth Movement]

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/02970287.pdf

Summary:

• Record NdPr production – 2,080t, first time exceeding 2,000t in a quarter
• First Dy/Tb (HREE) production outside China in decades
• Revenue up 38% QoQ → A$170.2m
• Average selling price hit A$60.2/kg, highest since July 2022
• Direct magnet-maker demand surging, with more ex-China customer contracts
• MoUs signed for Malaysian upstream supply & a new Korean magnet plant

What was highlighted re MP Materials/Dod/Ex-China Pricing:

• Lynas welcomed recent U.S. administration initiatives aimed at boosting the “rest of world” rare earths supply chain.
• They’re in ongoing talks with the U.S. Government about additional CAPEX for their Seadrift project in Texas (linked to U.S. strategic support).
• They see these U.S. policies as creating a larger, more vibrant non‑China rare earths industry.

I expect the new MP/DoD pricing floor to start to take effect for Lynas off takes in the next 6-12 months...but remember they tend to sign longer term off take agreements...so the new pricing probably won't be refelcted in there....unless break clauses or force majure clauses are triggered.

But we have seen a shift in direction for ex-China pricing.

Have a look at the last 20 quarters......(thanks ChatGPT for this type of analysis)

Quarter Ending	NdPr Price (ex‑VAT)	Lynas Quote	Sentiment Shift
Mar 2022	US$144.2/kg	“The NdPr price … reached US$144.2/kg in March 2022.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	China-indexed – tracking China prices
Jun 2022	US$120/kg	“The average China Domestic Price for NdPr … was US$120/kg.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au, wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	China-indexed – explicitly tied to China
Jun 2023	(not stated but implied low)	“sales receipts … reflecting the lower market prices … External market dynamics … resulted in lower market prices.” (Company Announcements)	China-indexed – following global/China trend
Jun 2024	US$46/kg	“…sales receipts … reflected the low average NdPr price (US$46/kg ex VAT) during the quarter.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	China-indexed – low China-driven pricing
Sep 2024	US$48/kg	“The average NdPr market price was US$48/kg ex VAT during the quarter.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	China-indexed, slight bottoming
Dec 2024	~US$49/kg (China)	“Supply side pressure resulted in average China domestic NdPr price … decreasing from US$56/kg … to US$49/kg.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	Still China-indexed, noting China price moves
Mar 2025	US$53/kg	“The average NdPr market price was US$53/kg ex VAT during the quarter… pricing offers independent of the market index.” (wcsecure.weblink.com.au)	Pivoting – mentions pricing independent of China index
Jun 2025	A$60.2/kg (~US$40/kg)	“ASP jumps to A$60.2/kg… highest since mid‑2022.” (EconoTimes)	Ex‑China-led – China price “no longer relevant”

It is clear that Lynas has seen a clear sentiment shift—from aligning with Chinese NdPr prices to delivering premium, ex‑China pricing.

Excellent report. Some important ex-China milestones. REEx includes an article based on some of this great work. https://rareearthexchanges.com/news...ex-china-pricing-and-downstream-magnet-moves/

 

[WideMouthFrog]

My view; Using quotes straight from the Lynas Quarterly.

Why Rare Earth Pricing Is Moving Beyond China’s Index​

The notion that rare earth pricing must remain tethered to China’s domestic index is increasingly outdated—and the market itself is proving it.

As Lynas Corporation noted in its latest quarterly:

“The average selling price improved during the period to A$60.2/kg, the highest since July 2022… due to a balanced pricing portfolio that includes pricing agreements independent of the market index.”

Translation ; Its independent. That’s more than a price uptick—it’s a signal of pricing autonomy, shaped by strategic relationships and direct customer engagement. It shows that offtake agreements are evolving, and that buyers will pay premiums for ESG-compliant, traceable, and policy-aligned material.

And Lynas’s momentum isn’t isolated. They also emphasised:

“Lynas welcomes the recent industry-shaping initiatives by the U.S. administration… We believe this support will lead to a much larger and more vibrant ‘rest of world’ rare earths industry.”

Translation: The era of Chinese pricing hegemony is winding down. With the U.S., EU, and Japanese policies incentivizing domestic magnet-making and clean feedstock sourcing, a new pricing framework must emerge—one that reflects Western costs, reliability, and ethical sourcing.


News Today: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s launch of ex-China CIF Europe and North America NdPr, Dy, and Tb oxide prices answers that call. It’s a structured, IOSCO-standard platform built for this new reality:

• It empowers marginal producers entering Western supply chains
• It supports OEMs under sourcing mandates
• And it tracks the natural pricing delta between Chinese and non-Chinese feedstock—something no legacy index could offer

For companies still clinging to Chinese spot indices, the writing is on the wall. Strategic projects, institutional buyers, and policymakers are aligning around ex-China material—and they need price discovery tools that reflect their actual operating conditions.


Pricing isn't just economics anymore—it's geopolitics. And the new benchmark isn't Beijing. It's Benchmark.

 

[WideMouthFrog]

No doubt a great quarter! They know how to do it. Did they provide any information about their production costs / ton?

Thats a lovely ; should we call it 'badge of honour' !

 

[John]

No doubt a great quarter! They know how to do it. Did they provide any information about their production costs / ton?

They only ever talk about their ore deposit being low cost. They never seem to give away their numbers. But given their multiple jurisdiction processing. Can’t be that cheap.

Not compared to ARU who also has a low cost phosphate ore deposit that will make them
One of the lowest cost producers in the world (and yet doing it in an ESG compliant way).

 

[John]

My view; Using quotes straight from the Lynas Quarterly.

Why Rare Earth Pricing Is Moving Beyond China’s Index​

The notion that rare earth pricing must remain tethered to China’s domestic index is increasingly outdated—and the market itself is proving it.

As Lynas Corporation noted in its latest quarterly:



Translation ; Its independent. That’s more than a price uptick—it’s a signal of pricing autonomy, shaped by strategic relationships and direct customer engagement. It shows that offtake agreements are evolving, and that buyers will pay premiums for ESG-compliant, traceable, and policy-aligned material.

And Lynas’s momentum isn’t isolated. They also emphasised:



Translation: The era of Chinese pricing hegemony is winding down. With the U.S., EU, and Japanese policies incentivizing domestic magnet-making and clean feedstock sourcing, a new pricing framework must emerge—one that reflects Western costs, reliability, and ethical sourcing.


News Today: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s launch of ex-China CIF Europe and North America NdPr, Dy, and Tb oxide prices answers that call. It’s a structured, IOSCO-standard platform built for this new reality:

• It empowers marginal producers entering Western supply chains
• It supports OEMs under sourcing mandates
• And it tracks the natural pricing delta between Chinese and non-Chinese feedstock—something no legacy index could offer

For companies still clinging to Chinese spot indices, the writing is on the wall. Strategic projects, institutional buyers, and policymakers are aligning around ex-China material—and they need price discovery tools that reflect their actual operating conditions.


Pricing isn't just economics anymore—it's geopolitics. And the new benchmark isn't Beijing. It's Benchmark.

Great work.

I wish those guys at Ginger would come on here and have a discussion. They have completely the opposite view.