MP Stock Investment

[multipolargrifter]

Hey guys I am watching MP begin to drop after what seems to be the dying down of this past speculation spike. I know there is a weariness of giving "financial advice", but truly I am just looking to learn and make my own investments based on my judgement. So that being said, what do you think is a good average MP price to average in on if you are just now jumping in? In other words, what are your general unrefined thoughts on MP stock pricing. Do you expect it to keep going down past pre-ban levels? Do you think a 2022 level spike in speculation is imminent?

 

[John]

MP is well positioned in the longer term. But in the short term they have some issues:

• They used to sell their concentrate to China, but as of April 2025, that is not economic due to the tariffs, so where will that concentrate be processed and what happens to that revenue?
• I think it will take more time to get their new production facility producing oxide and ramped up. And it could cost more.

There are some big question marks and maybe a possible capital raise (i have not looked at their cash positon...so this is just a guess).

So MP has some issues...and uncertainites....so it feels in the short term a bit risky. But I am keeping an eye on the SP and if it drops more, than I may invest more with a long term view. But there could be other opportunites with that potential capital raise. (please note, the captial raise is just my speculation).

I think something to also conside is that Lynas and MP may merge. I see synergies and I also see some complications. But I think it could be a much better player if they merge.



Disclosure - I hold a small positoin in MP Materials.

 

[Fundamental]

My main concern with MP is their Pit life. The push-back that they undertook a few years ago, is now getting close to reaching the minimum size constraints for a workable bottom. What then ? another pit expansion and crusher relocation? at a horrendous strip ratio, or go underground at American mining costs ? As they are not making a profit at current prices, perhaps they should temporarily seek feed from elsewhere for a while; Brazil, Angola and Namibia will all have concentrates available by the end of 2026, so long as Donald does not Tariff them out of reach!

 

[John]

My main concern with MP is their Pit life. The push-back that they undertook a few years ago, is now getting close to reaching the minimum size constraints for a workable bottom. What then ? another pit expansion and crusher relocation? at a horrendous strip ratio, or go underground at American mining costs ? As they are not making a profit at current prices, perhaps they should temporarily seek feed from elsewhere for a while; Brazil, Angola and Namibia will all have concentrates available by the end of 2026, so long as Donald does not Tariff them out of reach!

Could they merge with someone domestically?

Or do you think they should go ahead with Gina's plan to merge MP and Lynas?

 

[Fundamental]

Could they merge with someone domestically?

Or do you think they should go ahead with Gina's plan to merge MP and Lynas?

Sad to say, but I can't see any stand out American rare earth deposits worth merging with, Yes there are a couple of small deposits with reasonable grade and a large deposit with very low grades; but nothing really capable of sustaining high-quality feed to their new refinery. MP-Lynas might look good, but that would be creating yet another a 'single source' supply, does the West really need another Monopoly?

 

[John]

Sad to say, but I can't see any stand out American rare earth deposits worth merging with, Yes there are a couple of small deposits with reasonable grade and a large deposit with very low grades; but nothing really capable of sustaining high-quality feed to their new refinery. MP-Lynas might look good, but that would be creating yet another a 'single source' supply, does the West really need another Monopoly?

No Canadian project? There seem to be a bunch out there!

 

[Fundamental]

I did say American, Yes there are one or two Canadian deposits, but I think they will be keeping them to themselves for now. Quite a few logistical challenges to overcome as usual with any mine above 55 degrees North.