Valuing ARU and Final Equity Raise Discussion

[WideMouthFrog]

This is probably not correct, and designed to spark discussion....but maybe this last cap raise (80 million)....was the last cap raise for non-holders/externals? And the JV will bring the rest, plus the current shareholders contributing.......thoughts?

No conversation from me on that one. That was my original thought when they decided the JV. Get us a $400M US partner, and due to exchange, thats $600M. Thats a dream, but one could dream.

Wow, thanks for that reply Mr Frog. I won't say I disagree that a JV would be good.
For my money partnering with Rio or Freeport would be a great idea. I see Rio has recently partnered with Hancock for the Hope Downs project and I saw an article from May about Rio looking to jump into rare earths. Was that around the time Cabuzzo started hinting at a JV?
Naive question: would they dilute us like this if they thought a JV was in the offing?

Yes, they are likely to dilute - although like your thinking not critical, and some wouldnt be happy - I personally was not happy with wasted 16% dilution. i.e. In my eyes, they have to say that the raise is going to make us 16% value... As they give a few people like Gina and us retail holders low priced shares for our past support - and a few others they want on the register. And then they use the balance to get us into construction ASAP.

The fastest way to monetise this now, is have cash ready to get the initial steps of construction going the moment they announce FID.

 

[Andrew Ratcliffe]

I'm optimistic we'll hear something by October.

You think there are any old head investors who have been holding this stock since the IPO back in the early aughts who's been saying that every year for the last two decades?

 

[WideMouthFrog]

I'm optimistic we'll hear something by October.

You think there are any old head investors who have been holding this stock since the IPO back in the early aughts who's been saying that every year for the last two decades?

I think there are a more milestones that would be all supporting this project so from a time planning perspective; it’s hard to say: five things that could be delaying us; I imagine others would have more …

1. Germany - DD on second tranche of equity.
2. Australian government pricing floor, and stockpile conditions - apparently they are still early days.
3. Australian government EFA completion for their $150m - although done for the debt, they are doing again
4. The US government - trump executive order that was due around October. It had a certain amount of days, I cannot remember off the top of my head.
5. Everything else that we don’t know. Small changes to existing contracts due to new change in Circumstances that have presented in recent months.