Recent content by WideMouthFrog

  1. WideMouthFrog

    ARU's Offtake/Funding Strategy

    Whats missing here? If the JV doesnt bring US$325M, then surely this shortfall could be found from Gina, Australian Super or Hyundai. Does that mean the last capital raise at 19c, was the final capital raise?
  2. WideMouthFrog

    ARU EMPLOYEE OPTIONS - $0.43 Strike Price

    Maybe not, was set out way earlier... no idea on the path back then, nor the expected SP. Could be to contractors or anyone.
  3. WideMouthFrog

    ARU's Offtake/Funding Strategy

    LYC are saying plenty of incoming magnet processing coming out of US and Korea, and the magnet is the roadblock. Given DC's comments on thanking AL, it suggesting he has been given some guidance on what to shortcut in this world. As LYC have a magnet focus, guessingb ARU's magnet focus will be...
  4. WideMouthFrog

    Valuing ARU and Final Equity Raise Discussion

    I think there are a more milestones that would be all supporting this project so from a time planning perspective; it’s hard to say: five things that could be delaying us; I imagine others would have more … 1. Germany - DD on second tranche of equity. 2. Australian government pricing floor...
  5. WideMouthFrog

    Valuing ARU and Final Equity Raise Discussion

    No conversation from me on that one. That was my original thought when they decided the JV. Get us a $400M US partner, and due to exchange, thats $600M. Thats a dream, but one could dream. Yes, they are likely to dilute - although like your thinking not critical, and some wouldnt be happy - I...
  6. WideMouthFrog

    Valuing ARU and Final Equity Raise Discussion

    I stand firmly in the unpopular - 'other camp'—the one that rejects an FID for the sake of saying my investment is secure. A brief spike in the share price might appease some in the short term, but it’s a mirage. If we lock in the terms as currently outlined, we risk cementing long-term value...
  7. WideMouthFrog

    Valuing ARU and Final Equity Raise Discussion

    Also, absolutely. The US is a must, not a maybe. Why? Exchange rate! Only $400M equity is AU$600M of the equity component. Thats a massive reduction in dilution for Retail. JV must come form US. With what we know today, with the 'full carry' model or the 'JV' approach. There is no competition...
  8. WideMouthFrog

    Valuing ARU and Final Equity Raise Discussion

    Well said John, and thats the type of strategy that is missing with the ARU board. Im not offerng up an excuse, but they are so busy, for there small little team, that they miss every opportunity to be proactive. They use old school view, 'hope the SP will rise', and the market will do its...
  9. WideMouthFrog

    Valuing ARU and Final Equity Raise Discussion

    I hope you get an answer. I can tell you first hand they do not care for shareholders, when sending a message if you get close to the truth or ask the wrong question. Then they shut the conversation down.
  10. WideMouthFrog

    Export Finance Australia - Update

    Thank you, and I am impressed DC recognised retail shareholders along with Gina.
  11. WideMouthFrog

    Who is potentially going to JV with ARU?

    Correct, they de-risk, by having a genuine ex-China supply, and the psuedo ex-china supply (Malaysia-that carries the sovereign risk of mining in another jurisdiction) and that also gets LYC indirect access to the production tax credits, pricing floor - albeit through the higher price of the...
  12. WideMouthFrog

    Who is potentially going to JV with ARU?

    Yes, that’s correct. You guys brought out many great hints. It was by far the most ARU have outlined in the past 18 months They were subtle, but when you add it all together.. I just learned that LYC can escape the JARE contracts for opportunity cost reasons. So that means LYC would be a...
  13. WideMouthFrog

    Export Finance Australia - Update

    At diggers, LYC discussed sharing resources with government involvement. To support industry. So, whether they meant locally, or across the border. Hancock is shaping up to be the conduit. Government is the winner on the world stage, and retail holders do all the heavy lifting.
  14. WideMouthFrog

    Who is potentially going to JV with ARU?

    I believe the JV partner could be LYC, and the Australian government and MP. The government will want LYC for technical support, and LYC get access to great pricing floors on RE price. Additionally MP will be involved for Johns reasons above. I dont know the LYC contract in detail with Japan...
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