ARU Annual Report Time - Lets take a step back...

[John]

I wanted to have a look at the annual reports for the last three years for Arafura.
Link - 2025 AR for ARU
Link - 2024 AR for ARU
Link - 2023 AR for ARU

And these were the general themes that i found:

Financing:

• 2023 – Indicative ECA + A$30m grant
• 2024 – US$1bn+ conditional debt secured
• 2025 – Cornerstone equity (NRFC A$200m, GRMF, EFA LOI) + A$80m placement
• TREND: Indicative backing → committed debt → commited equity (or JV) → FID closed

Offtake:

• 2023 - Hyundai/Kia & Siemens Gamesa Binding with lots of others talking to ARU
• 2024 - Much the same as 2023
• 2025 - ARU off take position improved given market conditions, with non binding off takers now in a weaker position
• TREND - Improvement in price and terms for ARU

RE Market:

• 2023 - NdPr prices weak
• 2024 - NdPr prices weak
• 2025 - Policy support rising in US/EU meaning substainally higher pricing
• TREND - ex-China pricing now established and demand only going to increase pricing given limited supply

Project Costs:

• 2023 - Some increases in capex
• 2024 - Price remained steady
• 2025 - Price remains steady, with potnetial for savings (Gas, value engineering)
• TREND - costs likely to be steady or slight savings.

Summary:

• There has been solid progress over the last three years.
• Offtake although not fully binding, ARU's position has improved and is in a better positon than it was three years ago.
• NdPr Market has established Ex-China pricing. This ex-China pricing trend looks to improve further in the medium term.
• Costs have remained much the same, with potential for savings.

Nothing is ever as fast as you want, but when we take a step back, Arafura is moving forward and its positon as a future producer at scale has only improved.

Bring on the FID....and then I expect the market to totally re-rate ARU. Its time is coming.

 

[patarnoster]

I wanted to have a look at the annual reports for the last three years for Arafura.
Link - 2025 AR for ARU
Link - 2024 AR for ARU
Link - 2023 AR for ARU

And these were the general themes that i found:

Financing:

• 2023 – Indicative ECA + A$30m grant
• 2024 – US$1bn+ conditional debt secured
• 2025 – Cornerstone equity (NRFC A$200m, GRMF, EFA LOI) + A$80m placement
• TREND: Indicative backing → committed debt → commited equity (or JV) → FID closed

Offtake:

• 2023 - Hyundai/Kia & Siemens Gamesa Binding with lots of others talking to ARU
• 2024 - Much the same as 2023
• 2025 - ARU off take position improved given market conditions, with non binding off takers now in a weaker position
• TREND - Improvement in price and terms for ARU

RE Market:

• 2023 - NdPr prices weak
• 2024 - NdPr prices weak
• 2025 - Policy support rising in US/EU meaning substainally higher pricing
• TREND - ex-China pricing now established and demand only going to increase pricing given limited supply

Project Costs:

• 2023 - Some increases in capex
• 2024 - Price remained steady
• 2025 - Price remains steady, with potnetial for savings (Gas, value engineering)
• TREND - costs likely to be steady or slight savings.

Summary:

• There has been solid progress over the last three years.
• Offtake although not fully binding, ARU's position has improved and is in a better positon than it was three years ago.
• NdPr Market has established Ex-China pricing. This ex-China pricing trend looks to improve further in the medium term.
• Costs have remained much the same, with potential for savings.

Nothing is ever as fast as you want, but when we take a step back, Arafura is moving forward and its positon as a future producer at scale has only improved.

Bring on the FID....and then I expect the market to totally re-rate ARU. Its time is coming.

Great summary, always good to zoom out

 

[John]

Great post @WideMouthFrog

I agree. Things have not run to plan. And the plan has been changing to meet the market realities.

And with all of that, alot of value to shareholders has been eroded. But we are where we are. And we need a good outcome for exisiting shareholders with what we have now.

I also think that once FID is achieved, the SP will go up quite a bit. And will probably ignore the fundamentals. Like what is happening with MP Materials. They are way overvalued. Yet the expectation is that their SP will keep going up for a while longer.

Lets hope we get some posititve news soon. That article in The Australian also alluded to some news around the 20 Oct. And with DC's new inentive plan requiring FID by June 2026....and you would always give yourself some 'fat' in the timeline....so i think things are about to come to a conclusion with the financing for ARU soon.

For those sitting on the sidelines.....time to think about jumping onboard?

 

[WideMouthFrog]

Hey John,

Sorry I took it down, I find that when I write anything negative and positive (balanced) I upset people. I didn't have the energy to go through all those comments I wrote. Not directed at you, but my past experience on being truthful in forums.

But additionally, its not just changed plans as per your first comment - that is well accepted in this industry, this industry is moving so quickly - weekly even.

It has been poor planning, regulation, and communication. Then when you provide feedback or ask a question, unless it is very basic questioning along their narrative, they don't want to know or answer our questions - That's dangerous.

Like you say, things are changing, I don't believe its too late, with the lack of comms and lost trust due to the silence, the movement of money trumps all our noise.

Listen to your interview with DC again. at 24:30, but importantly 25:30.

We missed the big announcement on the JV structure... ? Thoughts. When you went into asking about Gina, he just pushed on with you.

It was a great interview, and good to listen back on.

 

[John]

Hey John,

Sorry I took it down, I find that when I write anything negative and positive (balanced) I upset people. I didn't have the energy to go through all those comments I wrote. Not directed at you, but my past experience on being truthful in forums.

But additionally, its not just changed plans as per your first comment - that is well accepted in this industry, this industry is moving so quickly - weekly even.

It has been poor planning, regulation, and communication. Then when you provide feedback or ask a question, unless it is very basic questioning along their narrative, they don't want to know or answer our questions - That's dangerous.

Like you say, things are changing, I don't believe its too late, with the lack of comms and lost trust due to the silence, the movement of money trumps all our noise.

Listen to your interview with DC again. at 24:30, but importantly 25:30.

We missed the big announcement on the JV structure... ? Thoughts. When you went into asking about Gina, he just pushed on with you.

It was a great interview, and good to listen back on.

If anyone gets attacked on this forum we will take action. And we welcome all views. So long as people are respectful and willing to engage.

I have re-listened to it.

So DC says:
- JV will have no effect on the debt;
- JV will have no effect on the current 2/3 locked in offtake
- JV will likely be someone wanting the 1/3 offtake?

So who do you think they are @WideMouthFrog ?

My guess is Rio.

 

[WideMouthFrog]

If anyone gets attacked on this forum we will take action. And we welcome all views. So long as people are respectful and willing to engage.

I have re-listened to it.

So DC says:
- JV will have no effect on the debt;
- JV will have no effect on the current 2/3 locked in offtake
- JV will likely be someone wanting the 1/3 offtake?

So who do you think they are @WideMouthFrog ?

My guess is Rio.

That’s interesting thought. Deep pockets there, just as DC stated.

Also, at 25:30, JV will buy into ARU, and JV will have to pay their way.

Example: If they JV 20%, they buy into parent at 20%, and then pay 20% of the capex.

The who? I have been round circles… and I think I’m back at the start…

 

[John]

That’s interesting thought. Deep pockets there, just as DC stated.

Also, at 25:30, JV will buy into ARU, and JV will have to pay their way.

Example: If they JV 20%, they buy into parent at 20%, and then pay 20% of the capex.

The who? I have been round circles… and I think I’m back at the start…

Posco? haha

For all the time and effort Posco has put in.....surely they could be the JV. I know they have signed alot of other deals lately...so maybe not?

 

[WideMouthFrog]

No, sorry, I was not meaning back at Posco. Just I have no clue. Back where I started…