Aust Govt - How long till they buy ARU product...Or will they get the chance?

John

Administrator
Staff member
So labor has won the Aust election.

They promised to buy and stockpile critical minerals.

I have previously said it could go two paths:
- Fast track for some projects they know well. ARU and ILU are two that I think they could fast track. They might do that to show Aust they mean business...and also gets these two RE projects underway.
- Normal Track - 4-8 months approx...lots of market sounding...policies etc etc.

I think its a 20% chance of the fast track...and 80% chance that go the normal track.

Given the the ARU CEO - DC said they don't have much off take left....will Aust Govt even get the chance to buy? I hope ARU management are playing hard ball. From what the ARU CFO PS said, they are holding firm on the reqirement to contribute equity if you get off take.

Question Reader: The The next question comes from Bernard Ho and reads, how is AIU going with securing remaining binding offtake agreements? Is GE still in the pipeline?

Daryl Kosubo, Managing Director and CEO, Arafura: Yeah. Did you would you like to talk to that one, Peter?

Peter Sherrington, CFO, Arafura: Yeah. No problems. So in terms of securing the remaining offtake, the issue is not so much around the the requirement for the offtake. And I think some of the events that we’ve seen over the last couple of months since The US tariff announcements have probably reinforced that view that there is a need for a a non China or or a supply diversification. So I I think that the challenge for us is that we are trying to link the the the remaining offtake to strategic equity.

And we’re going to hold pretty pretty hard on that because we believe that, you know, the the NDPR offtake is strategic, and we’re going to link the equity to that. And we’ll we’ll we’ll stick to that. That’s probably the challenge that presents to us around securing offtake. The second part of the question, so we’re confident we will get that, but we are probably making our our our our work around getting the offtake more challenging by linking that equity to it. But it’s critical to the funding strategy which we’ve set out.


In terms of GE, we we have, you know, an ongoing relationship with GE. We we have seen that, you know, for example, GE has probably been not gaining market share in the offshore wind turbine business. That is making it difficult for them to make a commitment now to offtake, but we remain engaged with them on looking at ways that they may be able to commit to offtake as we start to close out the the final offtake group. So whilst whilst we don’t see them as one of the groups that we will be engaging with on on the equity opportunities, we still engage with them on on offtake.
 
Given recent developments, including strong Australian government backing through substantial funding, strategic interest in stockpiling critical minerals, and the re-elected, majority, Labor government's supportive stance toward boosting domestic manufacturing capabilities, is it worth speculating about the potential acceleration of Phase 2?

With secured financing now surpassing US$1 billion, including a cornerstone $200 million equity commitment from Australia's National Reconstruction Fund, and additional debt financing from Export Finance Australia, Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, and international export credit agencies, Arafura has demonstrated robust financial and infrastructural readiness.

Moreover, the strategic imperative to diversify global rare earth supply chains, particularly for critical minerals like NdPr, aligns closely with governmental priorities under this Labor majority.

I understand that while combining Phases 1 and 2 presents significant logistical and financial challenges, the ongoing pre-feasibility study outcomes due soon, combined with potential joint ventures and enhanced government incentives, make an accelerated timeline for Phase 2 increasingly plausible, IMO.

If successfully integrated, this expansion could significantly elevate Australia's role as a global rare earths supplier, providing strategic geopolitical and economic advantages. The final investment decision (FID) expected {INSERT DATE} will be critical in shaping the project's trajectory.

Speculating of course, but current conditions strongly support the possibility of a faster-than-anticipated Phase 2 rollout. Also IMO :)

Thoughts?
 
Yeah...in the back of my mind...i sometimes thought that maybe someone had approached ARU to take all of Phase 2, if it was wrapped into Phase 1. I was thinking someone like USA DoD or the like....

But yeah....i think it is unlikely. But hopeufully it can happen quick after FID....and not wait years and years.

But the Aust Govt could also bring back MinHub....where ARU could process lots of other RE Australian players.....maybe that is a way that Govt could support ARU but also give a leg up to all the other smaller players. That is what companeis like Northern Minerals need to get past FID.
 
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