Trump Tariff Probe on Critical Minerals - Not needed...i just wrote it for him.

[John]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...liance-imported-critical-minerals-2025-04-15/


Trump has got the USA Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, to begin a national security review of the USA's reliance on imported critical minerals.

Howard Lutnick is a proponent of tariffs. He has even gone so far as to say that tariffs are worth it, even if it leads to a short-term recession.

So given his beliefs we can already deduce the report is likely to say:

• USA should put tariffs on Critical Minerals from China.
• This will build production of these minerals at home or with USA Allies.
• But - if we go to hard too early, China may cut us off completely...and then we are stuffed.
• So we should invest heavily into USA and USA Allies to get the Ex-China critical minerals and supply chains established ASAP.

His report should ideally have a plan for all that investment.

If he is reading this post (which I am guessing he is, because we see that most of Washington is reading our website), then can I suggest the following as the investment plan for the Trump administration:


Draft Trump Rare Earth Investment Plan – Make Rare Earths Great Again

Need to focus on what mines, processors, magnet makers are ready to go.

The following supply chains are already happening, or about to happen. And these should be the focus of direct investment by USA. By this I mean 'Cash Grants'.

• My quick guestimate would be about $18.5 billion would go a long way to getting most of these projects up and producing in the next 3-5 years.
• Throw another $1 billion at the Universities to ensure there are people educated that can actually design, build, maintain, operate, produce all these rare earths and magnets.
• Add another $0.5 billion for the govt to administer it, and cut through the red tape, permits etc….and for about $20 billion, the Ex-China Rare Earth market and supply chains would be created.

$20 billion for the USA Government is nothing.


So why wait 6 months for this report? It is clear what Trump needs to do.


Make Rare Earths Great Again! Spend some money. Make it happen.

 

[Dustin]

It borders on strategic negligence or worse. While China tightens its grip on rare earth supply chains, the U.S. government under Trump’s latest executive order is opting for six more months of bureaucratic study, as if we have time to spare. Not foresight, but foot-dragging. Trump himself recognized the urgency in the past administration, and with an already announced executive order. Yet now the administration stalls while the Chinese gov outpaces in refining, magnet production, and global partnerships. We are not in a race for resource dominance—they are dominant in that sphere. Pausing to “assess” while the other side sprints in an all-out trade war is potentially catastrophic for us.

 

[multipolargrifter]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...liance-imported-critical-minerals-2025-04-15/


Trump has got the USA Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, to begin a national security review of the USA's reliance on imported critical minerals.

Howard Lutnick is a proponent of tariffs. He has even gone so far as to say that tariffs are worth it, even if it leads to a short-term recession.

So given his beliefs we can already deduce the report is likely to say:

• USA should put tariffs on Critical Minerals from China.
• This will build production of these minerals at home or with USA Allies.
• But - if we go to hard too early, China may cut us off completely...and then we are stuffed.
• So we should invest heavily into USA and USA Allies to get the Ex-China critical minerals and supply chains established ASAP.

His report should ideally have a plan for all that investment.

If he is reading this post (which I am guessing he is, because we see that most of Washington is reading our website), then can I suggest the following as the investment plan for the Trump administration:


Draft Trump Rare Earth Investment Plan – Make Rare Earths Great Again

Need to focus on what mines, processors, magnet makers are ready to go.

The following supply chains are already happening, or about to happen. And these should be the focus of direct investment by USA. By this I mean 'Cash Grants'.

View attachment 6

• My quick guestimate would be about $18.5 billion would go a long way to getting most of these projects up and producing in the next 3-5 years.
• Throw another $1 billion at the Universities to ensure there are people educated that can actually design, build, maintain, operate, produce all these rare earths and magnets.
• Add another $0.5 billion for the govt to administer it, and cut through the red tape, permits etc….and for about $20 billion, the Ex-China Rare Earth market and supply chains would be created.

$20 billion for the USA Government is nothing.


So why wait 6 months for this report? It is clear what Trump needs to do.


Make Rare Earths Great Again! Spend some money. Make it happen.

I was researching Rare Earth USA and I noticed they have only two employees listed, which is very strange for a company with this high of a market cap. I then found out that Mike Pompeo became a strategic advisor in 2023, before it went public. Do you think this might give a hint that they might rake in a disproportionate amount of government contracts for REE investment? It is also almost branded to receive these contracts. What do you think?

 

[John]

I was researching Rare Earth USA and I noticed they have only two employees listed, which is very strange for a company with this high of a market cap. I then found out that Mike Pompeo became a strategic advisor in 2023, before it went public. Do you think this might give a hint that they might rake in a disproportionate amount of government contracts for REE investment? It is also almost branded to receive these contracts. What do you think?

Hi @multipolargrifter

Wow. That is great insight with Mike Pompeo (former Trump CIA Director). I think his insights and connections would be of emmense value to USA Rare Earths ( https://www.usare.com/ ).

I also understand that the DoD Secretarty was due to report on 1 April 2025 on how it will use blockchain for all DoD supply contracts. https://forum.rareearthexchanges.com/threads/us-dod-blockchain-report.13/. But there has been nothing publically stated? So i think there is more going on in the background for DoD.....not just blockchain, but how they will diversify their supply chains away from China.


When I had a look, I think USA Rare Earths have more than two employees, but it is hard to tell.

I have been finding that there are many companies in the rare earth sector with valuations/market caps that seem disproportionate to where they are in terms of progress and the remaining risks they are exposed to.

But it also flips the other way.

For instance I find the market cap for Arafura (ASX: ARU) ridiculous. They are poised to get fully financed, after a 18-19 year journey...and yet their market cap is tiny. But this seems to be typical for every mine from discovery through to operation. But also with today's capital markets ripe for manipulation, large institutions can keep the share price artifically low to allow them to accumulate or keep low to get an equity stake in a raise at a discount.

 

[multipolargrifter]

Hi @multipolargrifter

Wow. That is great insight with Mike Pompeo (former Trump CIA Director). I think his insights and connections would be of emmense value to USA Rare Earths ( https://www.usare.com/ ).

I also understand that the DoD Secretarty was due to report on 1 April 2025 on how it will use blockchain for all DoD supply contracts. https://forum.rareearthexchanges.com/threads/us-dod-blockchain-report.13/. But there has been nothing publically stated? So i think there is more going on in the background for DoD.....not just blockchain, but how they will diversify their supply chains away from China.


When I had a look, I think USA Rare Earths have more than two employees, but it is hard to tell.

I have been finding that there are many companies in the rare earth sector with valuations/market caps that seem disproportionate to where they are in terms of progress and the remaining risks they are exposed to.

But it also flips the other way.

For instance I find the market cap for Arafura (ASX: ARU) ridiculous. They are poised to get fully financed, after a 18-19 year journey...and yet their market cap is tiny. But this seems to be typical for every mine from discovery through to operation. But also with today's capital markets ripe for manipulation, large institutions can keep the share price artifically low to allow them to accumulate or keep low to get an equity stake in a raise at a discount.



View attachment 8

Thanks John for the follow up and the info. Very useful graph as I am barely diving into the topic. Also very useful first post on here. cheers

 

[John]

Thanks @multipolargrifter

Yeah this forum only started a few days ago. And we have some great posters/members coming soon with experienced backgrounds in Rare Earths.

So please come back often and check for new content. And let us know anything you want covered/discussed.

And tell your friends! haha

 

[Fundamental]

Given that Mike is/was a Director of USA.RE and the past histories of Diamond Joe and Jack Lifton, I will not be holding my breath on Round Top. The Magnet plant certainly has potential, if only as a training ground to develop/investigate more modern technologies.

 

[multipolargrifter]

Given that Mike is/was a Director of USA.RE and the past histories of Diamond Joe and Jack Lifton, I will not be holding my breath on Round Top. The Magnet plant certainly has potential, if only as a training ground to develop/investigate more modern technologies.

I agree I would actually hold MP longterm, but would treat USA Rare Earth as a sort of short term winner. I have no faith these people run this company well. I read the lawsuit with gutnick and the share dilution fiasco. I mores want to get in on the grift and get out early. Not sure if it's naive way to think about all this, but I want a slice of the grift pie while its bullish.

 

[DOC]

I was researching Rare Earth USA and I noticed they have only two employees listed, which is very strange for a company with this high of a market cap. I then found out that Mike Pompeo became a strategic advisor in 2023, before it went public. Do you think this might give a hint that they might rake in a disproportionate amount of government contracts for REE investment? It is also almost branded to receive these contracts. What do you think?

Hard to say. Good research points however. We do know Washington DC is "inundated" with companies and groups claiming they can solve the problem. They are in overwhelm mode. We do know of some very smart advisors that have some touchpoints into DC so it will be interesting to see how DC/Trump admin makes decisions

 

[Fundamental]

Hard to say. Good research points however. We do know Washington DC is "inundated" with companies and groups claiming they can solve the problem. They are in overwhelm mode. We do know of some very smart advisors that have some touchpoints into DC so it will be interesting to see how DC/Trump admin makes decisions

From what we have seen from Trumps "Advisors" so far; he is being led down rabbit hole after rabbit hole. First Ukraine, no RE's and certainly not US$5B worth. Then Greenland, yes, they have RE's but the CAPEX required just to set up the logistics will be in the range of US$100B: Port, Town, Power plant, Water supply, Airport. Followed briefly by deep-sea mining, at grades in the parts per Billion range. Could it be that the word Billion triggers a switch in his thinking? With over 40 years in this Industry, I have learnt to recognise the difference between actual achievers and those who are merely legends in their own minds. Most of the so-called Analysts in the US would not know what the fundamental requirements for a Rare Earth mine are; yet alone be able to "Advise" Donald as to what an achievable Policy looked like.

 

[John]

From what we have seen from Trumps "Advisors" so far; he is being led down rabbit hole after rabbit hole. First Ukraine, no RE's and certainly not US$5B worth. Then Greenland, yes, they have RE's but the CAPEX required just to set up the logistics will be in the range of US$100B: Port, Town, Power plant, Water supply, Airport. Followed briefly by deep-sea mining, at grades in the parts per Billion range. Could it be that the word Billion triggers a switch in his thinking? With over 40 years in this Industry, I have learnt to recognise the difference between actual achievers and those who are merely legends in their own minds. Most of the so-called Analysts in the US would not know what the fundamental requirements for a Rare Earth mine are; yet alone be able to "Advise" Donald as to what an achievable Policy looked like.

Good post @Fundamental

We are doing a piece of work we hope to release soon to REEx. And one thing we found, there are many many RE projects that just don’t make economic sense. In fact, I would say that given the current and medium term demand, only 20-30% of all the projects make economic sense.

 

[multipolargrifter]

Good post @Fundamental

We are doing a piece of work we hope to release soon to REEx. And one thing we found, there are many many RE projects that just don’t make economic sense. In fact, I would say that given the current and medium term demand, only 20-30% of all the projects make economic sense.

And with China having the power to manipulate prices and make it even more unprofitable I think it's especially cooked.

 

[John]

And with China having the power to manipulate prices and make it even more unprofitable I think it's especially cooked.

oh well...at least now the Australian Govt has stepped into this market failure...and decided to buy the minerals themselves!

 

[multipolargrifter]

Yes I have hope as long as the west (particularly the US) doesn't keep escalating a Cold War with China.

 

[HeadWiNd]

@John Why do you believe, as you've written, most of Washington is reading your website?

 

[John]

@John Why do you believe, as you've written, most of Washington is reading your website?

When you have a website the analytics give you that kind of data.

 

[Fundamental]

While I fully support Government providing incentive to kickstart self-reliance, I suspect that your numbers are grossly overinflated and could be drastically reduced by some specific targeting. The idea of Government stimulating a industry by strategic investment somewhere in the process chain is not new. The Australian Governments (mostly State) encouraged the development of our Gold mining Industry between 1860 and 1960 by building and operating State Batteries. Miners received a small reward for discovering a new field, but more importantly, were then guaranteed a process hub and floor price for the ore that they mined and delivered to those Batteries.

If Governments can guarantee a viable downstream market, then they can let the Miners do the rest.