Who is potentially going to JV with ARU?

https://www.hancockprospecting.com....y-invest-1-6-billion-in-hope-downs-2-project/


So the relationship must be pretty good between Rio and HP.....so could that mean the JV partner might be Rio?

Rio has been cautious on rare earths—but it's expressed growing interest in critical minerals, and recently made rare earth moves (e.g., Jadar lithium, scouting African REEs, R&D in REE byproduct recovery. Plus a JV between Rio and Hancock/Arafura recieved well by the Australian Govt.
 
Yeah....surely the JV partner is US based? To take advantage of all the Trump cash.....surely....
 
Yeah....surely the JV partner is US based? To take advantage of all the Trump cash.....surely....
Maybe it’s USA Rare Earth. Had this discussion with another member last night. Here’s what u found.

Arafura’s Nolans Project (Australia)
Arafura Resources is developing the Nolans Project in Australia’s Northern Territory—a world-class NdPr resource with an integrated mine-to-oxide facility. At full capacity, it aims to produce ~4,400 t/yr of NdPr oxide and 600–700 t/yr of SEG-HRE (middle/heavy rare earths). Backed by ~$200M in Australian government equity and nearly $1B in debt from EFA, NAIF, and the Critical Minerals Facility, Nolans is de-risked and shovel-ready. Binding offtakes are in place with Hyundai, Kia, Siemens Gamesa, and Traxys. With two-thirds of production contracted, the remaining challenge is securing final equity to move into construction.

USA Rare Earth (USAR)
USA Rare Earth is building a domestic rare earth supply chain in the U.S. It was originally a funder of the Round Top project (heavy rare earths) and now focuses downstream, including NdFeB magnet production and rare earth oxide separation. It plans to produce ~5,000 t/yr of REOs at its upcoming Oklahoma plant by 2026. With partnerships (e.g. PolarStar Magnetics) and DFARS compliance, USAR is positioning to supply defense, EV, and clean tech sectors—but it lacks upstream NdPr supply. Round Top is still in development and more focused on heavies.

Why It Makes Sense
  • Supply Chain Integration: Arafura can supply the NdPr feedstock USAR needs. A JV would vertically integrate mining in Australia with magnet production in the U.S.—a model both governments support.
  • Complementary Product Mix: Nolans focuses on light REEs (Nd, Pr), while Round Top offers heavies (Dy, Tb, Y). Together, they span the full REE spectrum.
  • Aligned Strategic Goals: Both aim to build non-Chinese REE supply chains. A JV aligns with U.S.-Australia critical minerals cooperation mandates and may attract further government backing.
  • Financing Synergy: Arafura needs equity capital to bridge its funding gap. USAR, already raising capital via its upcoming NASDAQ listing, could fill that role and gain equity in a de-risked project.
  • Technical Collaboration: USAR’s proprietary separation tech (CIX/CIC) could add long-term process optionality.
  • Market Access: USAR's U.S. magnet ambitions open new customer channels for Arafura, particularly in defense and EV sectors. A JV could lead to Arafura’s NdPr entering U.S. strategic reserves or long-term offtake deals.
Past Collaborations
  • In 2019, Arafura signed an LOI with USAR to process SEG-HRE carbonate at a Colorado pilot plant. This validated USAR’s separation tech and showed Arafura's willingness to partner on downstream processing.
  • The press release explicitly cited alignment with the U.S.-Australia critical minerals strategy.
  • The 2020 pandemic likely delayed the definitive agreement, while both parties focused on internal development (e.g., USAR acquiring a U.S. magnet plant, Arafura finalizing project debt).
  • Despite no formal JV emerging then, lines of communication remain open, and strategic alignment persists.
Other Considerations
  • Arafura also signed an MoU with Canada’s SRC in 2024 to process its heavies. This doesn’t conflict with a USAR partnership, as different partners can support different parts of the value chain (e.g., NdPr to USAR, SEG/HRE to SRC).
  • USAR’s investor base and Arafura’s (e.g. Hancock Prospecting, Australian government) include aligned institutional backers. Any overlap would strengthen JV prospects.
  • Both firms likely engaged in overlapping government dialogues and DoD tender processes, reinforcing strategic ties.
Conclusion
All signs point to USA Rare Earth being Arafura’s unnamed JV partner mentioned in the most recent quarterly. The logic is sound: Arafura brings a ready-to-go NdPr supply, while USAR offers processing, magnet production, and U.S. market integration. This partnership would secure critical inputs for U.S. industries while solving Arafura’s equity gap—minimizing shareholder dilution and accelerating FID.

Past collaborations show trust and technical compatibility. Geopolitical urgency in 2025 makes the partnership even more relevant. If confirmed, the JV will link Australian mining with U.S. manufacturing in a vertically integrated magnet supply chain—a model example of Western cooperation to break China’s monopoly on rare earths.
 
Yeah...USA Rare Earths did have discussions with ARU and did some work at their pilot plant....but things seem to have been too quiet for too long.

USA RE signed their agreement with ASM in 2023....so maybe that is not going to happen....but there has been no announcments...

And where will USA RE get the cash? Trump cash? Maybe...but I feel that the more stablished players like MP Material will be the focus.

So to be honest...I just don't see this JV happening.

I still think ARU is more likley to JV with a large Australian miner (RIO or BHP).....which might have been subtly requested by the Australian Govt? And look at the recent JV between Rio and Hancock.......
 
John, what made you think "almost" what was the catalyst? ... aside from the SP action + DC saying more visits to the US?

Sorry. Got busy yesterday.

I am doing a deep dive into magnet makers globally. And just looking at how the industry is playing out.

Somthing we have noticed at REEx is that alot of the smaller/early stage players are grouping together using MOUs etc. (ie not binding)...and the larger players are starting to tie in with other larger tier 1 players...and they tend to stay quiet until it is binding.

And when I look at what DC has said...and who is available...and the pro/cons....MP seems like it could be the one.
 
Sorry. Got busy yesterday.

I am doing a deep dive into magnet makers globally. And just looking at how the industry is playing out.

Somthing we have noticed at REEx is that alot of the smaller/early stage players are grouping together using MOUs etc. (ie not binding)...and the larger players are starting to tie in with other larger tier 1 players...and they tend to stay quiet until it is binding.

And when I look at what DC has said...and who is available...and the pro/cons....MP seems like it could be the one.
Yeah, it can make sense, lets see if any new nuggets pop up soon...
 
Well, this makes the Ex-China market real;

Australia will set minimum prices for rare earth minerals and broker national supply deals to break China's grip on the critical defence material.
 
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Talking about Joint Ventures.
The below was posted on ARU Hotcopper from a Senior Korean defence journalist .

The most Interesting Part of the Article was the 3rd last paragraph stating the below .

While the world is alarmed and domestic industries are worried, Korea’s government appears to be watching from the sidelines. Authorities have increased stockpiles, strengthened international cooperation and supported technologies for reduction, substitution and recycling. But this is not enough. Securing overseas rare-earth mines is essential.

Is there any possibility of a Korean JV that could be a win/win that the Australian Government would be happy with too ?
A Korean owned mines alone would NOT be good enough , as they really require processed product from an owned mine .

How long can Korea rely on the private sector for strategic rare earth supplies?​

Published: 07 Aug. 2025, 00:03

Lee Cheol-jae


The author is a senior defense reporter at the JoongAng Ilbo

A story recently emerged from a domestic auto parts company. The firm, which produces electric vehicle motors, has been exploring drones and even built a prototype quadcopter. When considering supplying the drone to the military, the company hesitated. The reason was the rare-earth magnets used in its motors.

The firm sources all of its rare-earth magnets from China. It worried that if Beijing learned that its magnets were being used in military drones, the supply could be cut off. This concern is not isolated. According to the Korea International Trade Association, 99.3 percent of Korea’s rare-earth magnets imported last year came from China.

The rivalry between the United States and China spans land, sea, air, cyberspace and outer space. Rare earth metals are now part of that contest. The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 3 that after China restricted rare-earth exports, military production slowed and Western defense firms scrambled to secure supply worldwide.

The tension escalated after the United States imposed 145 percent tariffs on Chinese products in April. In response, China tightened exports of critical minerals, including rare earths. Western factories faced shutdowns as supplies shrank. A temporary tariff truce in June allowed some exports to resume, but Beijing continues to strictly control minerals for defense use. The price of samarium, one of the key rare-earth elements, has surged 60-fold.

Rare earth elements consist of 17 metals: scandium, yttrium and the lanthanides from lanthanum through lutetium. Known for their fluorescent, conductive and magnetic properties, they are essential for displays, motors and batteries. If steel was the “rice of industry” in the 20th century, rare earths are the “vitamins of industry” in the 21st.

Despite the name, rare earths are not scarce. They are dispersed in low concentrations and usually mixed with other minerals. Extracting small amounts requires processing large volumes of ore, generating considerable toxic waste.

The United States was once a rare-earth powerhouse. During the Cold War, it countered the Soviet Union’s numerical strength with precision-guided weapons. Samarium boosted radar performance, while yttrium improved laser target designators. The Mountain Pass mine in California’s Mojave Desert was the world’s largest source of rare earths.

China began developing rare earths strategically in the late 20th century. In his 1992 southern tour speech, Deng Xiaoping famously said, “The Middle East has oil; China has rare earths.” From 1978 to 1995, China’s rare-earth production increased by an average of 40 percent annually. Falling prices forced U.S. and Western producers to close mines or halt production, leaving China dominant due to lower costs and fewer environmental restrictions.

Beijing expanded its influence by acquiring overseas rare-earth mines and companies. A notable case was Magnequench, a U.S. producer of rare-earth magnets. Washington approved its 1995 acquisition by a Chinese consortium on the condition that operations remain in the United States for five years. The factory moved to China the day that period ended, cementing China’s control over the magnet market.

The risks became clear as two major events unfolded. The first was the launch of Apple’s iPhone on Jan. 9, 2007. Nine types of rare earths are embedded in the sleek device. Lanthanum corrects distortion in tiny glass camera lenses, neodymium magnets improve sound in small speakers and yttrium and erbium phosphors brighten displays while saving power.

The second was the Sept. 7, 2010, incident near the Senkaku Islands, when Japan’s coast guard detained a Chinese fishing captain. Soon after, China’s rare-earth exports to Japan slowed without explanation. Tokyo protested, but Beijing cited environmental measures. Prices soared, in some cases by several hundred percent. Japan eventually released the captain.

Today, rare-earth demand is surging, and China alternates between tightening and loosening supply at will. Rising U.S.-China tensions have made this volatility more severe. The U.S. Department of Defense is particularly exposed, as over 80,000 components in its systems rely on Chinese-sourced critical minerals.

In response, the Pentagon last month acquired a 15 percent stake in MP Materials, the largest rare-earth miner, which operates the Mountain Pass mine and a magnet plant. The Pentagon agreed to guarantee nearly double the market price for the company’s rare earths for the next decade.

Even so, breaking global dependence on Chinese rare earths will take time. Some analysts estimate at least 20 years. The United States invested in Australia’s Lynas in 2017, but progress has been limited. Japan diversified its supply chain after the 2010 shock, yet its reliance on China still stands at 70 percent, according to the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security in 2024.

While the world is alarmed and domestic industries are worried, Korea’s government appears to be watching from the sidelines. Authorities have increased stockpiles, strengthened international cooperation and supported technologies for reduction, substitution and recycling. But this is not enough. Securing overseas rare-earth mines is essential.

The Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corporation, formed in 2021 by merging the Korea Resources Corporation and the Korea Mine Reclamation Corporation, is prohibited from conducting overseas resource development. The responsibility falls entirely to the private sector. Korea once secured Vietnam’s Dong Pao rare-earth mine in 1997 but lost it during the financial crisis.

Unless the country regains a proactive role in resource security, it risks remaining dependent on what one might call “rare-earth rain-fed paddies,” relying on others for lifeblood materials in the age of strategic minerals.
 
Sorry. Got busy yesterday.

I am doing a deep dive into magnet makers globally. And just looking at how the industry is playing out.

Somthing we have noticed at REEx is that alot of the smaller/early stage players are grouping together using MOUs etc. (ie not binding)...and the larger players are starting to tie in with other larger tier 1 players...and they tend to stay quiet until it is binding.

And when I look at what DC has said...and who is available...and the pro/cons....MP seems like it could be the one.
Do not get me wrong a JV with MP would send SP of ARU skyrocketing but what is the advantage ARU can bring MP? So why do a JV with MP?
Ok ARU can bring them approx 4500to NdPr a year which is approx 2/3 what MP can put out. ARU has a little HREE which lacks MP. ARU will produce some Phosphorus Byproducts. Do not see the big synergies others then having more NdPr available. OK Gina R. has shares in both but other than this were is the advantage MP has in a JV with ARU - is it just having more NdPr?? Probably you can shed some more light on this?
 
Talking about Joint Ventures.
The below was posted on ARU Hotcopper from a Senior Korean defence journalist .

The most Interesting Part of the Article was the 3rd last paragraph stating the below .

While the world is alarmed and domestic industries are worried, Korea’s government appears to be watching from the sidelines. Authorities have increased stockpiles, strengthened international cooperation and supported technologies for reduction, substitution and recycling. But this is not enough. Securing overseas rare-earth mines is essential.

Is there any possibility of a Korean JV that could be a win/win that the Australian Government would be happy with too ?
A Korean owned mines alone would NOT be good enough , as they really require processed product from an owned mine .

How long can Korea rely on the private sector for strategic rare earth supplies?​

Published: 07 Aug. 2025, 00:03

Lee Cheol-jae


The author is a senior defense reporter at the JoongAng Ilbo

A story recently emerged from a domestic auto parts company. The firm, which produces electric vehicle motors, has been exploring drones and even built a prototype quadcopter. When considering supplying the drone to the military, the company hesitated. The reason was the rare-earth magnets used in its motors.

The firm sources all of its rare-earth magnets from China. It worried that if Beijing learned that its magnets were being used in military drones, the supply could be cut off. This concern is not isolated. According to the Korea International Trade Association, 99.3 percent of Korea’s rare-earth magnets imported last year came from China.

The rivalry between the United States and China spans land, sea, air, cyberspace and outer space. Rare earth metals are now part of that contest. The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 3 that after China restricted rare-earth exports, military production slowed and Western defense firms scrambled to secure supply worldwide.

The tension escalated after the United States imposed 145 percent tariffs on Chinese products in April. In response, China tightened exports of critical minerals, including rare earths. Western factories faced shutdowns as supplies shrank. A temporary tariff truce in June allowed some exports to resume, but Beijing continues to strictly control minerals for defense use. The price of samarium, one of the key rare-earth elements, has surged 60-fold.

Rare earth elements consist of 17 metals: scandium, yttrium and the lanthanides from lanthanum through lutetium. Known for their fluorescent, conductive and magnetic properties, they are essential for displays, motors and batteries. If steel was the “rice of industry” in the 20th century, rare earths are the “vitamins of industry” in the 21st.

Despite the name, rare earths are not scarce. They are dispersed in low concentrations and usually mixed with other minerals. Extracting small amounts requires processing large volumes of ore, generating considerable toxic waste.

The United States was once a rare-earth powerhouse. During the Cold War, it countered the Soviet Union’s numerical strength with precision-guided weapons. Samarium boosted radar performance, while yttrium improved laser target designators. The Mountain Pass mine in California’s Mojave Desert was the world’s largest source of rare earths.

China began developing rare earths strategically in the late 20th century. In his 1992 southern tour speech, Deng Xiaoping famously said, “The Middle East has oil; China has rare earths.” From 1978 to 1995, China’s rare-earth production increased by an average of 40 percent annually. Falling prices forced U.S. and Western producers to close mines or halt production, leaving China dominant due to lower costs and fewer environmental restrictions.

Beijing expanded its influence by acquiring overseas rare-earth mines and companies. A notable case was Magnequench, a U.S. producer of rare-earth magnets. Washington approved its 1995 acquisition by a Chinese consortium on the condition that operations remain in the United States for five years. The factory moved to China the day that period ended, cementing China’s control over the magnet market.

The risks became clear as two major events unfolded. The first was the launch of Apple’s iPhone on Jan. 9, 2007. Nine types of rare earths are embedded in the sleek device. Lanthanum corrects distortion in tiny glass camera lenses, neodymium magnets improve sound in small speakers and yttrium and erbium phosphors brighten displays while saving power.

The second was the Sept. 7, 2010, incident near the Senkaku Islands, when Japan’s coast guard detained a Chinese fishing captain. Soon after, China’s rare-earth exports to Japan slowed without explanation. Tokyo protested, but Beijing cited environmental measures. Prices soared, in some cases by several hundred percent. Japan eventually released the captain.

Today, rare-earth demand is surging, and China alternates between tightening and loosening supply at will. Rising U.S.-China tensions have made this volatility more severe. The U.S. Department of Defense is particularly exposed, as over 80,000 components in its systems rely on Chinese-sourced critical minerals.

In response, the Pentagon last month acquired a 15 percent stake in MP Materials, the largest rare-earth miner, which operates the Mountain Pass mine and a magnet plant. The Pentagon agreed to guarantee nearly double the market price for the company’s rare earths for the next decade.

Even so, breaking global dependence on Chinese rare earths will take time. Some analysts estimate at least 20 years. The United States invested in Australia’s Lynas in 2017, but progress has been limited. Japan diversified its supply chain after the 2010 shock, yet its reliance on China still stands at 70 percent, according to the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security in 2024.

While the world is alarmed and domestic industries are worried, Korea’s government appears to be watching from the sidelines. Authorities have increased stockpiles, strengthened international cooperation and supported technologies for reduction, substitution and recycling. But this is not enough. Securing overseas rare-earth mines is essential.

The Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corporation, formed in 2021 by merging the Korea Resources Corporation and the Korea Mine Reclamation Corporation, is prohibited from conducting overseas resource development. The responsibility falls entirely to the private sector. Korea once secured Vietnam’s Dong Pao rare-earth mine in 1997 but lost it during the financial crisis.

Unless the country regains a proactive role in resource security, it risks remaining dependent on what one might call “rare-earth rain-fed paddies,” relying on others for lifeblood materials in the age of strategic minerals.
So a JV with the Korean Govt?

I would say that anything is possible at this stage.

We have been saying for years that the world is 'waking up' to the rare earth issues. And what I never factored into my analysis, was just how slow the Governments of the world (and the private sector) is to confront these rare earth issues. I should not have been surprised. When has Govt ever done anything proactively? And the Private Sector is not what it is cracked up to be. They jsut look for short term profits. Few boards really look long term because they have to deal with short term results.
 
Do not get me wrong a JV with MP would send SP of ARU skyrocketing but what is the advantage ARU can bring MP? So why do a JV with MP?
Ok ARU can bring them approx 4500to NdPr a year which is approx 2/3 what MP can put out. ARU has a little HREE which lacks MP. ARU will produce some Phosphorus Byproducts. Do not see the big synergies others then having more NdPr available. OK Gina R. has shares in both but other than this were is the advantage MP has in a JV with ARU - is it just having more NdPr?? Probably you can shed some more light on this?

It is a bit of all of the above.

The supply side seems to fit:
- They need NdPr stock (so ARU can process...but MP can use for their magnets as the scale up)
- They need HREE...yep ARU does not have much....the world actually doesn't need that much...it is used in tiny amounts...and DoD just wants to have security on this...and ARU coudl produce about 600 tpa (not sure of the actual breakdown in the mix...i could work it out..but it doesn't matter for this discussion).

Then the owners side seems to fit:
- THe Gina shares.....
- Gina is close to the Trump administration...and I bet the DoD

But for me...it was in the last ARU quarterly....when REEx asked the first question which was something like...why are ARU looking to develop their flowsheet for more HREE...how long will this take, how much extra capex...and how much more product. And the answer was:
- The concept design work/proving...will take about 6 months
- Capex is about $10 million
- will see an increase of HREE from about 400 to 600 tpa.

AND THIS IS THE IMPORTANT PART
- ARU has a cash runway till about May 2026. So things are super tight.
- Why would they spend all this money of finding 1/3 more HREE?
- It must be aligned with some potential customer, who must be SUPER SERIOUS about getting HREE.

And who is the entitity that is desperate to secure HREE.....DoD in USA who now owns part of MP.

And that is why I think the JV partner for ARU is MP/DoD. It makes sense....

Also add, that in the REEx interview we did on Youtube....DC at the end said he will be spending more time in USA.
 
It is a bit of all of the above.

The supply side seems to fit:
- They need NdPr stock (so ARU can process...but MP can use for their magnets as the scale up)
- They need HREE...yep ARU does not have much....the world actually doesn't need that much...it is used in tiny amounts...and DoD just wants to have security on this...and ARU coudl produce about 600 tpa (not sure of the actual breakdown in the mix...i could work it out..but it doesn't matter for this discussion).

Then the owners side seems to fit:
- THe Gina shares.....
- Gina is close to the Trump administration...and I bet the DoD

But for me...it was in the last ARU quarterly....when REEx asked the first question which was something like...why are ARU looking to develop their flowsheet for more HREE...how long will this take, how much extra capex...and how much more product. And the answer was:
- The concept design work/proving...will take about 6 months
- Capex is about $10 million
- will see an increase of HREE from about 400 to 600 tpa.

AND THIS IS THE IMPORTANT PART
- ARU has a cash runway till about May 2026. So things are super tight.
- Why would they spend all this money of finding 1/3 more HREE?
- It must be aligned with some potential customer, who must be SUPER SERIOUS about getting HREE.

And who is the entitity that is desperate to secure HREE.....DoD in USA who now owns part of MP.

And that is why I think the JV partner for ARU is MP/DoD. It makes sense....

Also add, that in the REEx interview we did on Youtube....DC at the end said he will be spending more time in USA.
I believe the JV partner could be LYC, and the Australian government and MP. The government will want LYC for technical support, and LYC get access to great pricing floors on RE price. Additionally MP will be involved for Johns reasons above. I dont know the LYC contract in detail with Japan, but I do understand Japan have their product as 'first right of refusal' and so this caps LYC for upside. So how do they work around? Take on board another resource. and Aunty Gina ties it all together....

But most importantly for ARU shareholders, is if this or any other variation of this message is not clearly delivered, we remain as a failing project to the broader investing world. ARU management have a responsibility to deliver a clear message and not stay behind closed doors for the benefit of incoming partners.
 
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I believe the JV partner could be LYC, and the Australian government and MP. The government will want LYC for technical support, and LYC get access to great pricing floors on RE price. Additionally MP will be involved for Johns reasons above. I dont know the LYC contract in detail with Japan, but I do understand Japan have their product as 'first right of refusal' and so this caps LYC for upside. So how do they work around? Take on board another resource. and Aunty Gina ties it all together....

But most importantly for ARU shareholders, is if this or any other variation of this message is not clearly delivered, we remain as a failing project to the broader investing world. ARU management have a responsibility to deliver a clear message and not stay behind closed doors for the benefit of incoming partners.

I think it was in our REEx interview that DC said that ARU was already derisked with all the LYC learnings. But unless they are using the same consultants, or have employeed some ex-LYC employees....why would he say that? Hmmmmm

ARU shareholders def could do with some insights on what is going on.
 
Yes, that’s correct. You guys brought out many great hints. It was by far the most ARU have outlined in the past 18 months They were subtle, but when you add it all together..

I just learned that LYC can escape the JARE contracts for opportunity cost reasons.

So that means LYC would be a candidate and could potentially produce the carbonate, and then forward to ARU to finish product to Oxide.

I was trying to figure previously the who, and was bouncing off ILU, etc. but after your interview the LYC relationship has moved to my top of the list.
 
So that would mean that LYC can de-risk its business...and not rely on Malaysia for its processing. And ARU is the processing hub.

Also ties in nicely with all the compliments that DC gave Amanda during the interview....???
 
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