Arafura - General Discussion

[Andrew Ratcliffe]

It could be weeks before anything official...

I'm wondering if we'll still have a global economy in weeks. The days of the gears of trade being lubricated by petro dollars may be fast coming to an end. Not sure how high a priority ex China rare earth supply chain will be if current paradigm shifts or collapses. Am I being cynical or realistic?

 

[John]

Thing always look bad...and then things get fixed. Maybe not perfectly...

Rare earth shortfall is pretty much baked in....I wouldn't be changing my thesis based on Iran....

 

[SJVR]

Could it be early April? Tired of waiting. It will never be the “perfect” time which is why they need to get a move on.

 

[WideMouthFrog]

Could it be early April? Tired of waiting. It will never be the “perfect” time which is why they need to get a move on.

It feels like you brought the change in luck!

 

[patarnoster]

Well we got a small update today. End of march, hit target in a round about way, by one day.

Now we wait for the last $97m USD cornerstone and off-takers.

Looking like April may be the time.

 

[EddyMoney87]

Well we got a small update today. End of march, hit target in a round about way, by one day.

Now we wait for the last $97m USD cornerstone and off-takers.

Looking like April may be the time.

Hope we are on the last meters towards FID

Also hope we do not get an additional CR!???!

 

[John]

So this last off take is intersting. ARU needs this to secure the debt (ie they need 80%).

The germans might secure the 500tpa...and then KfW will commit the last $50 million euro. US$57~ million.

But what about the rest to get to 80%.



So they are obviously well advanced on the 500 tpa with German "industry".

How are they going to sell the remaining 730 tpa?

Options
- Keep working the market....
- Get Aust Govt to buy for their stockpile
- Get US Govt to buy for their stockpile
- Renegotiate the Debt to lower the 80% to 60%....(Im sure Peter the CFO just shuddered at the thought of breaking open all those debt contracts....Come on Peter...jsut use ChatGPT to change them all... ;-) ......)

Quickest path home for ARU...do a deal with a Trump Backed company.
Second quickest way home Aust Govt Stockpile.

 

[patarnoster]

So this last off take is intersting. ARU needs this to secure the debt (ie they need 80%).

The germans might secure the 500tpa...and then KfW will commit the last $50 million euro. US$57~ million.

But what about the rest to get to 80%.

View attachment 130

So they are obviously well advanced on the 500 tpa with German "industry".

How are they going to sell the remaining 730 tpa?

Options
- Keep working the market....
- Get Aust Govt to buy for their stockpile
- Get US Govt to buy for their stockpile
- Renegotiate the Debt to lower the 80% to 60%....(Im sure Peter the CFO just shuddered at the thought of breaking open all those debt contracts....Come on Peter...jsut use ChatGPT to change them all... ;-) ......)

Quickest path home for ARU...do a deal with a Trump Backed company.
Second quickest way home Aust Govt Stockpile.

I think, and expect based on DCs comments that they are well advanced with off takes, no way those are left to, keeping working on the market, the debt is locked because its tied to equity i think.

 

[John]

The debt is tied to equity and offtake....plus a million other CPs.

I hope they have the rest of the offtake almost locked in....

 

[SJVR]

Darryl did say in his interview on Mining Network 4 weeks ago that offtake partners should be finalised in a couple months. So hopefully end of this month is for those funding arrangements and offtakes to conclude for FID approval in May

 

[patarnoster]

Yeah so March was equity, and April is offtakes... looking forward to seeing some commited numbers.

 

[John]

May is FIDs?
June is Party month
July is pulling those shovels out and start digging!

 

[patarnoster]

May is FIDs?
June is Party month
July is pulling those shovels out and start digging!

I believe to call fid they have to get shareholder approvals, a GM is set usually is 30 to 60 days after ann, so your timing would be right if it all aligns in April.

 

[John]

I don't think FID needs shareholder approval? I'm 99% sure.

But they will need shareholder approval for the last piece of equity for those extra shares to be granted......

 

[John]

FID is decided by the board.

So once shareholders have agreed the equity etc.......then within a day the board should be able to say Yes/No for FID.

 

[SJVR]

ARU said in the binding equity announcement that “further detail regarding the timetable for the GM will be provided to shareholders in due course”. I assume they will include all Equity arrangements (the leftover piece included) in this GM, so they must be close if this is the case.
Would make more sense to bundle it all in one GM if possible.

 

[patarnoster]

Thats right, once all is put together and board calls FID they still need to get the final shareholder approval, i don't mean shareholder to do FID, i mean for the whole thing inc. equity etc.