Arafura - General Discussion
- Thread starter John
- Start date
patarnoster
Active member
Andrew Ratcliffe
New member
I bought back in just before this big drop and I'm holding the line until February or so. I highly doubt any JV is coming to save the day but I think Daryl can get the numbers we need for an FID. If Big Mama Rhinehart is parked here then I think it's as safe as anywhere else right now. Besides with escalating tensions with Venezuela in my country I think security concerns and a reaction from China will give us a short term boost again soon.
My expeirence with Gina held companies, is she is ruthless in the short term. But in the long term, it generally always works out. Unless she manages to take the company private (then you lose the long term benefits).
I think what they do, is they buy into a company with a long term view. Then they leave the shares with their custodian...who can lend them out to shorters. This gives Gina some income in the short term. And she doesn't care if the share price is pushed down. Hell, if it is pushed down even more, she could buy even more.
Lots of heat has come out of the rare earth market globally. Becasue Trump said it is all fixed.
But - people in the know....know this is not the case. It has just kicked the can down the road. At REEx we are hearing that there will be a big crunch around mid 2026. Unless China actually starts delivering what they promised....which is highly unlikely.
But even if that happens, the world needs more RE and in needs to create an ex-China supply. Long term most of the top RE companies should do very well.
All just my humble opinions.
I think what they do, is they buy into a company with a long term view. Then they leave the shares with their custodian...who can lend them out to shorters. This gives Gina some income in the short term. And she doesn't care if the share price is pushed down. Hell, if it is pushed down even more, she could buy even more.
Lots of heat has come out of the rare earth market globally. Becasue Trump said it is all fixed.
But - people in the know....know this is not the case. It has just kicked the can down the road. At REEx we are hearing that there will be a big crunch around mid 2026. Unless China actually starts delivering what they promised....which is highly unlikely.
But even if that happens, the world needs more RE and in needs to create an ex-China supply. Long term most of the top RE companies should do very well.
All just my humble opinions.
EddyMoney87
Member
I stumbled of this tweet here:
LS Cable could as well be a potential partner / customer of Arafura $Aru.ax in the USA. As mentioned previously, there have been regular Australia/Korean business council meetings akbc.com.au and typically Arafura participated in the past.
Furthermore, reading Arafura’s investor presentations, LS Cable is mentioned as one of the top players in the NdPr Magnet sector.
To add to this, it would definitely be helpful for Arafura to supply those to be built rare earth magnet factories if they wanted to get more funding from the US: $USAR #LSCable #VACuumschmelze
Any thoughts on this?
LS Cable could as well be a potential partner / customer of Arafura $Aru.ax in the USA. As mentioned previously, there have been regular Australia/Korean business council meetings akbc.com.au and typically Arafura participated in the past.
Furthermore, reading Arafura’s investor presentations, LS Cable is mentioned as one of the top players in the NdPr Magnet sector.
To add to this, it would definitely be helpful for Arafura to supply those to be built rare earth magnet factories if they wanted to get more funding from the US: $USAR #LSCable #VACuumschmelze
Any thoughts on this?
Hi @EddyMoney87
I think these guys could be tied to the $300m uSA money?
I would imagine ARU are currently:
- waiting for Germany to announce their funding
- looking for someone else to fill the SPP shortfall. Please Aunty Gina….
- finalize the rest of the equity with those people.
I forget the last of the equity stack.
It’s strange that the SPP was not underwritten.
they will work it out. Aust govt is on board. Maybe they will stump up the rest.
Just has to get done.
I think these guys could be tied to the $300m uSA money?
I would imagine ARU are currently:
- waiting for Germany to announce their funding
- looking for someone else to fill the SPP shortfall. Please Aunty Gina….
- finalize the rest of the equity with those people.
I forget the last of the equity stack.
It’s strange that the SPP was not underwritten.
they will work it out. Aust govt is on board. Maybe they will stump up the rest.
Just has to get done.
EddyMoney87
Member
What i also found strange was this substantial holder change 19.12 Morgan Stanley / Mitsubishi and 22.12 no substantial holder.
Is this just a shift in shares as they were close to 5% or is there something with substance behind?
Wish you nice Christmas
Is this just a shift in shares as they were close to 5% or is there something with substance behind?
Wish you nice Christmas
EddyMoney87
Member
Hope ARU can profit here and FID is done soon.
Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve sharpens the focus on rare earths
Today’s release of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) Design
Paper for Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve, provides the Australian Government
with a framework to fulfill an election commitment and build on the agreement between
Prime Minister Albanese and President Trump.
Bringing together and working with 10 rare earth developers, AMEC commissioned Mandala
Consulting to optimise a Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve (CMSR), to ensure commercial
bankability, limited tax payer fiscal exposure, and consistency with the Government's policy
objectives.
AMEC has been in discussions with the government since the election promise was made in
April 2025, finalising this paper and providing it to the government in December 2025.
AMEC Chief Executive Officer, Warren Pearce said, “This paper pulls together the expertise
of industry to provide an informed perspective on how best to meet the Government’s plans
for a CMSR.
“The Government went to industry and asked for options and the best practical model for the …
Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve sharpens the focus on rare earths
Today’s release of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) Design
Paper for Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve, provides the Australian Government
with a framework to fulfill an election commitment and build on the agreement between
Prime Minister Albanese and President Trump.
Bringing together and working with 10 rare earth developers, AMEC commissioned Mandala
Consulting to optimise a Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve (CMSR), to ensure commercial
bankability, limited tax payer fiscal exposure, and consistency with the Government's policy
objectives.
AMEC has been in discussions with the government since the election promise was made in
April 2025, finalising this paper and providing it to the government in December 2025.
AMEC Chief Executive Officer, Warren Pearce said, “This paper pulls together the expertise
of industry to provide an informed perspective on how best to meet the Government’s plans
for a CMSR.
“The Government went to industry and asked for options and the best practical model for the …
EddyMoney87
Member
ARAFURA on the list
Canberra leans toward strategic reserve for rare earths with floor and ceiling prices
• Strategic Reserve Purpose: Safeguard taxpayers against potential losses in the critical minerals sector, particularly rare earths essential for defence and politically sensitive industries.
• Proposed Model: Developed by the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) based on their successful lobbying for production tax credits.
• Potential Costs: Initial commitment of $1.3 billion, but could increase significantly depending on the scale of the reserve and potential support for Australian producers.
• US-MP Materials Deal: US agreed to pay MP Materials a minimum of $US110 per kg for neodymium and praseodymium for a decade.
• US Rare Earths Supply Contracts: The US government would issue supply contracts based on talks with allies, and rare earths players would bid for a share of the contract volumes.
• AMEC Model: Arafura Rare Earths, Wyloo, Northern Minerals, Hastings Technology Metals, Australian Rare Earths, Australian Strategic Materials, Cobra, Critica, OD6 Metals, and Victory Metals united behind the AMEC model.
• Government Support for Rare Earths Projects: Rare earths companies will continue to require government funding, even with a strategic reserve in place.
• Strategic Reserve Framework: Confirmation of the framework is expected soon, potentially encompassing a floor price and national offtake agreements.
• Scope of the Strategic Reserve: The reserve will initially focus on a subset of Australia’s 31 critical minerals, with the possibility of expanding to include other minerals.
• AMEC Model Similarity: Resembles the government’s Capacity Investment Scheme in the east coast energy sector.
• Government Scheme Objective: Boost investment in renewable energy by underwriting revenue for selected projects.
• Revenue Underwriting Mechanism: Agreed floor and ceiling prices are used to manage revenue for selected projects.
Canberra leans toward strategic reserve for rare earths with floor and ceiling prices - Stockhead
Mining lobby group AMEC has outlined a plan to protect taxpayers from losses as Canberra looks to build a strategic rare earths reserve.
stockhead.com.au
And no LYC on the list....I wonder why they don't just do some acquistions...to get access to some of the incoming Aust price floors......
LYC has always baffled me with their business structure/operations. It must be costly doing stuff all over the world. And i think that is where ARU could really push ahead of LYC in the coming years. Mark my words now!
LYC has always baffled me with their business structure/operations. It must be costly doing stuff all over the world. And i think that is where ARU could really push ahead of LYC in the coming years. Mark my words now!
EddyMoney87
Member
G7 FINANCE MINISTERS TO MEET IN WASHINGTON ON JANUARY 12 TO DISCUSS RARE EARTHS SUPPLIES, THREE SOURCES SAY.
FIN MINISTERS WILL DISCUSS PRICE FLOORS FOR RARE EARTHS AMONG OTHER CRITICAL MINERAL TOPICS, ONE SOURCE SAYS.
Here a source from Reuters
www.reuters.com
let’s see if this helps us or is not beneficial as Australia also announced price flors.
FIN MINISTERS WILL DISCUSS PRICE FLOORS FOR RARE EARTHS AMONG OTHER CRITICAL MINERAL TOPICS, ONE SOURCE SAYS.
Here a source from Reuters
G7 finance ministers to meet in Washington to discuss rare earths, three sources say
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations will meet in Washington on January 12 to discuss rare earths supplies, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
let’s see if this helps us or is not beneficial as Australia also announced price flors.
Andrew Ratcliffe
New member
Bessent says Australia, India invited to G7 meeting on critical minerals
The meeting follows reports that China restricted rare-earth and powerful magnet exports to Japan and banned dual-use items to its military.
patarnoster
Active member
It does look like that G7 event was a fizzer, with no new updates, and Germany Still taking their sweet as time.
patarnoster
Active member
Certainly something is brewing, could be big, the LYC departure was a surprise, but I think it would be hard to connect it back to ARU… but stranger things have happened and this project is a unicorn in the first place.
patarnoster
Active member
A HC thread noted brokers have had a request for peoples names on the register, this tends to be a process before signing a govt contract. This would explain the afternoon crash today with the call going out then, but it may be the finalisation of the equity
patarnoster
Active member
Yeah according to a bit of googling, it’s a pre requisite for signing large govt funding.
