Interesting slides from ARU regarding supply/demand

[John]

ARU did a presentation at the 2025 Global Metals &Mining Conference.
Here is the link to the presentation - CLICK HERE

It really is a compelling case for the China/ex-China supply required to meet the demand.

Bascially...even with China and Ex-China brining on lots more supply....won't be able to meet demand.....

Here are the slides:







This accords with some of the modelling i did a year ago. And it is on my list to update.

Anyone got any other insights? Or good links to information on supply and/or demand?

 

[banana1234]

last year the world produced over 17m evs in which over 12m of them were made in China. Based on first slide with the US2.5T, that would give us 52.3m evs in 2030. That is 3 times more than 2024 total evs production. That is impressive but let's look at lithium sector prediction and the lithium price today. Not be negative but the share price has continue to fall, is it being manipulated or not really doesn't really matter. If the company has more than sufficient equity but have chosen the JV path, the share price should reflect it. We need to put a QUESTION mark on this ?????

It is fair to conclude that the global economy reliance on china NdFeb magnet (94%) is a systemic risk providing 2030 projection will materialize. Learning from lithium prices and oversupply compound risks for magnet dependent sectors (evs)

However, I am more inclined toward labor policy action to subsidise domestic production and stockpiling to get this project up and running.

ARU has the most advance financing so far say compare to Dubbo which we have to agree it sits better with Future Made in Australia for addressing full supply chain gaps (again a good story if there is no delay in their FEED this october - funding?? ) where ARU is really focusing on EV and wind turbines..

this is a question of where the remaining US660m will come from. Are we going to find out by end of June or July??

 

[John]

Hi @banana1234

Interesting point re Lithium. But the reason Lithium prices are so low, is because it is easy for anyone to enter the market. And they all did...at once! Whereas it is much much harder with rare earths. Mainly the cost/time to get the mineralogy right (ie can they process it in a way that is cost effective, including costs with potetnial radioactive wastes etc. etc. ). Lithium is more straightforward. So that is why so many of them came online at the same time...and the prices dropped.

I see more pain for Lithium too. With these new Samsung batteries that use silver. They will be an amazing battery when they scale it up. It is probably too early to invest in it. The market won't wake up to it for years.


Yeah...the final equity challenge. I really don't understand why it is so hard. Gina has lots of wealthy friends. WHy doesn't she get a club together, maybe Elon and one of his mates....they throw in $100-200m each....bam...they are away...

I'm not expecting any announcement this June/July now. These JV talks must be real...or the board would be very exposed to litigation.

 

[banana1234]

Hi @banana1234

Interesting point re Lithium. But the reason Lithium prices are so low, is because it is easy for anyone to enter the market. And they all did...at once! Whereas it is much much harder with rare earths. Mainly the cost/time to get the mineralogy right (ie can they process it in a way that is cost effective, including costs with potetnial radioactive wastes etc. etc. ). Lithium is more straightforward. So that is why so many of them came online at the same time...and the prices dropped.

I see more pain for Lithium too. With these new Samsung batteries that use silver. They will be an amazing battery when they scale it up. It is probably too early to invest in it. The market won't wake up to it for years.


Yeah...the final equity challenge. I really don't understand why it is so hard. Gina has lots of wealthy friends. WHy doesn't she get a club together, maybe Elon and one of his mates....they throw in $100-200m each....bam...they are away...

I'm not expecting any announcement this June/July now. These JV talks must be real...or the board would be very exposed to litigation.

My point re Lithium is the supply deficit that were pretty much every single lithium developers presentation. I believe there are plenty NdPr around for everyone at this stage (surely from China). Projection can be wrong or it can be right. As for ARU, "bifurcation" with government policy action. Without policy action, all miners are price takers

 

[WideMouthFrog]

My point re Lithium is the supply deficit that were pretty much every single lithium developers presentation. I believe there are plenty NdPr around for everyone at this stage (surely from China). Projection can be wrong or it can be right. As for ARU, "bifurcation" with government policy action. Without policy action, all miners are price takers

You may have missed the point here,

Lithium is find and mine. Everyone is a lithium miner. Every country.

Rare Earths are find, mine and refine. There is minimal ex-China supply. Where you have things crossed, is it doesn’t matter how much product China can produce, this is not the sought after product, because this doesn’t secure national security or productivity. The purpose is to ensure national security and productivity, or else lose power to China.

On the western side. It is not easy to ramp up a required circa twenty years of IP, and rare earth supply on the ex-China side will therefore determine the next super power. At this stage China wins, there is all but zero western supply - with virtually nothing in the pipeline.

That’s not a risk anyone can take.

 

[Fundamental]

ARU did a presentation at the 2025 Global Metals &Mining Conference.
Here is the link to the presentation - CLICK HERE

It really is a compelling case for the China/ex-China supply required to meet the demand.

Bascially...even with China and Ex-China brining on lots more supply....won't be able to meet demand.....

Here are the slides:

View attachment 20
View attachment 21View attachment 22

View attachment 23


This accords with some of the modelling i did a year ago. And it is on my list to update.

Anyone got any other insights? Or good links to information on supply and/or demand?

I am glad you said it was a year old, as it is now outdated with Pensana being fully funded and commencing construction, I can't work out what the size of the circles is supposed to represent or their position on the vertical scale ?

 

[John]

I am glad you said it was a year old, as it is now outdated with Pensana being fully funded and commencing construction, I can't work out what the size of the circles is supposed to represent or their position on the vertical scale ?

Hi @Fundamental

I don't think there is a vertical scale. It is just the size of the circle equals the Market Cap.