John, I just want to clarify this statement from dc. So basically fid is delayed by company choice (because there are more than enough equity ) but because there are better funding alternatives i.e jv so the company chose to delay the fid.
Therefore if the jv turns to be a pear shape, will the existing equity commitment still available? If so the fid is inevitable..
With the Labor initial 200m critical minerals acquisition plus additional 1 billion. Lets assume Labor returns, how long does the parliamentary approval will take.
Share price seems okay closen at 19.5
In regards to the reason for the FID delay...i think there are a few things:
1 -
The Aust Govt buying our product....DC said that this will take time....here is the quote:
Question Reader: The next question comes from Steven Darrington and reads, is the proposed strategic stockpile likely to be associated with further government equity joint venture opportunities?
Daryl Kosubo, Managing Director and CEO, Arafura: It’s too early to to say. The Australian government has really just outlined at a very high level what they intend to do with the strategic reserve and that they will enter into a consultation process, and and we look forward to participating in that.
2 - The other part is
someone has decided they want to JV....so that will take time and MUST be considered due to the much better outcome for shareholders (ie they would be negligent in their duty to shareholders)...here is the quote that says they are close to securing the equity with the original strategy:
Question Reader: There are a number of questions coming through regarding the alternative funding solutions or potential alternative funding solutions. So I’m just gonna lump them into to one question. Is there any more information you can share about the potential joint venture, and is the structure likely to be a fifty fifty joint venture?
Daryl Kosubo, Managing Director and CEO, Arafura: Yeah. So I can’t share anymore at this point. Right? So I’m I’m very mindful that there’s a need for additional information. And as soon as we can share it, we will share it.vThe reason for flagging it, though, is because in the past, we’ve been talking about our equity strategy, and we haven’t specifically flagged the JV structure. But but that is a real alternative, But it’s too early for us to comment anymore at this stage, but we’re mindful that there is a strong strong desire to name more. And as soon as we can, we will share it.
and
Question Reader: Thanks, Hayley. The first question comes from Brett Smith of B and L Smith Superfund and reads, what level of assurance or confidence can you give shareholders that FID will happen before the end of the calendar year?
Daryl Kosubo, Managing Director and CEO, Arafura: Yeah. So let me take that one, Brett. So that’s probably the million dollar question. Right? So so let me share with you what we’re doing around that.
Right? And you can you can see this in the introductory, comments. So there’s a there’s a few parts to it. So so firstly, we’ve engaged with multiple cornerstone investors more than what we need to secure, the equity that that’s required, and that gives us optionality. That gives us multiple pathways to get there.
And with that, that gives us confidence to to secure FID. And, and also by having different options, it gives us options to choose what is in the best interest of our shareholders in a long term, company. We’re confident of achieving fit for that for that very, very reason. If you look at, some of the geopolitical events, that has raised awareness around the importance of rare earths to the manufacture of permanent magnets and why you need permanent magnets. I know everyone on this call has been aware of that, but I think that awareness across the globe hasn’t been there.
But that awareness is increasing rapidly, and that is very helpful for us. The other thing that we’ve gotta take into account, though, is that many investors are, I’m going to say, somewhat sitting on their hands waiting to see what happens with this potential trade war. So what we so the way we’re playing this is we’re engaging with that cornerstone investors more than what we need. We’re using the opportunity of this increased awareness of the importance of to engage with other parties so they’re ready to come in so that as the market settles down, we’re ready to move. Long story short, we’re confident of achieving FID because of that engagement. And as we achieve milestones, we will share that with the market so that you can see the progress that we’re making.
3 -
The party wanting to JV may be coming in cold..and need time for DD etc....here is the quote i'm speculating on:
Question Reader: The next question comes from Bernard Ho and reads, with the Trump presidency, do you see the US government potentially being part of any equity funding and or grant funding given their national security concerns?
Daryl Kosubo, Managing Director and CEO, Arafura: Bernard, so, good question. Right? So, again, I probably can’t say too much, but but what I can say is that as we look for a fully funded solution and the if you like, The US is growing attention to securing warehouse supply, we’re certainly exploring avenues around that. But there’s nothing that’s at a point that we can we can be definitive about at this point.
From this and his body language.....it felt like to me USA is coming for us.
Just looking at the time line for labor to get binding agreement in place to buy product...it would take about 6 months. BUT....i think for projects that are 'shovel ready' they could have an accelerated program. So maybe 1-2 months?
| Stage | Description | Estimated Timeframe |
|---|
| 1. Post-Election Transition & Policy Setup | After winning, Labor would need to confirm this policy in the budget, appoint a delivery team (likely via Austrade, Export Finance Australia, or a new unit), and allocate guidelines. | 1–2 months |
| 2. Program Design & Industry Consultation | Define eligibility (e.g., which minerals, project stage, ESG criteria), delivery mechanisms (e.g., offtake contracts, stockpiling, price floors), and risk management. | 1–2 months |
| 3. Tender or Direct Negotiation | Either an open tender process or strategic direct negotiations with advanced-stage projects (e.g., Arafura, Hastings, Northern Minerals). | 2–3 months |
| 4. Finalisation of Contracts | Due diligence, negotiation, ministerial sign-off, and execution of legally binding offtake or purchase contracts. | 1–2 months |
If I was ARU....i would just be using this as a negotiations stategy to drive the off take parties to sign asap. Or govt will buy it.
